Chargers +9.5 hit
Patriots -7.5 hit
Panthers +whateveritwas missed
Seahawks -8 pushed
Not a bad followup to the 3-0 week in the Wild Card Round. Two Conference Championship game picks are forthcoming.
Monday, January 13, 2014
Wednesday, January 8, 2014
Dave's NFL Divisional Round Picks (slap!) of the Week; Wild Card Picks go 3-0
In better news, Wild Card Round picks for the NFL went 3-0!
Chiefs +2.5 barely hit.
Saints +2.5 hit.
Chargers +7 hit.
For the playoffs I don't always have LOCKS of the week, but there is one LOCK I'm happy to reveal this week:
THE DAVE SEXTUPLE QUALITY LOCK OF THE YEAR
It is Seahawks -8 vs the Saints. I think the Seahawks, despite their so-so offense, will dictate the run with Marshawn Lynch and beat the Saints pretty handily. It won't be as resounding as their 34-7 win on Monday Night Football, but they should still win by 10 or more. I *love* the Seahawks, and for weeks I prepared for a sextuple quality bet for their first home playoff game. What incredible luck that they get to play the Saints! Seahawks -8. Seattle 31, New Orleans 17.
Now for the other picks, which are not LOCKS, but I shall reveal them.
Next we go to New England, and meet the Colts at the Patriots. The Patriots, with their much improved defense, should be able to put away Indy, although you can never truly be sure with an Andrew Luck team. However, Luck's arm is prone to turnovers and I think the Patriots are sure to take advantage. I actually think the Patriots can win going away. We'll go Patriots -7. New England 24, Indianapolis 13.
On to Carolina where the 49ers meet the Panthers.
What else can you say? Both teams are really tough defensively, and they match up with each other very well. It was a tough fought affair in their regular season matchup in SF, and Carolina emerged with a victory. I feel like the playoff matchup will also be oh-so-close, but this time out, the… HOME team will win. Which means, Carolina takes it twice in a row. Carolina is +2, so we elect to take the points. It could also point to a 49ers 1 point win… and judging from their last meeting, it's just as possible, but either way, I like the home team getting 2 points. Panthers +2 at home. Carolina 13, San Francisco 7.
Finally, to Mile High in Denver…
I am still APPALLED that the Broncos would be giving a whopping 9.5 against a Chargers team that plays them tough. What that says is not that the NFL experts don't have confidence in San Diego, but that the fans who wager on games don't have much respect for San Diego at *all.* A touchdown-plus underdog two weeks in a row, despite San Diego's quality performance against Denver at Mile High where they won the game. In addition, it's keen to watch for Peyton Manning's playoff performance: it takes a marked downturn come January. For both of the above reasons, I like San Diego to make it very very interesting, but this time out I think the Broncos win it. San Diego +9.5 with Denver getting the win. Denver 31, San Diego 28.
Final LOCKS Season Total: 32-33-2
VERY disappointing finish to LOCKS of the Week this year. I really thought I'd have my first above .500 season ever.
It didn't happen. My final three LOCKS of the Week went 0-3. I missed on Jacksonville +11, Texas +14.5 and Florida State -7.5. My last two weeks of LOCKS of the Week went 0-6. Selecting games against the spread is a humbling experience. No matter how good you think you are, Vegas always gets the upper hand in the end.
It's an important lesson. Farewell to LOCKS! We'll do it again next year, hopefully with an elusive above .500 finish.
It didn't happen. My final three LOCKS of the Week went 0-3. I missed on Jacksonville +11, Texas +14.5 and Florida State -7.5. My last two weeks of LOCKS of the Week went 0-6. Selecting games against the spread is a humbling experience. No matter how good you think you are, Vegas always gets the upper hand in the end.
It's an important lesson. Farewell to LOCKS! We'll do it again next year, hopefully with an elusive above .500 finish.
Sunday, January 5, 2014
Dave's Thoughts of the Day: January 5th
First of all, Happy New Year!
I am writing this entry on a Sunday, after some very dramatic NFL football. Coach invited two friends of his to the apartment to watch 49ers/Packers. Thrilling game! I wasn't sure if the 49ers would pull it out, but their defense held true when it counted. It was a low scoring game and it went in SF's favor. Got a juicy story coming up but first some NFL thoughts...
Boy! That capped an all-around terrific NFL Wild Card Round. Every game exciting... not every one was decided on the last play but 3 of the 4 were and it was a ton of fun to watch.
I suppose I could spend some time writing about the big winners and losers. All right here we go.
Winners:
Well, obviously the teams that won the games are big winners: Colts, huge comeback. 49ers, won an emotional, tough road game at Lambeau. Chargers, the magic ride continues! Saints, finally shook off the demons and mixed it up with a running game at Philly.
But you know what else? I think you have some other winners in effect, even for teams that lost.
The Eagles had a winning season and a good finish despite the loss in their playoff game. They were finished, completely written off, when Chip Kelly turned it around with the help of Nick Foles. I don't think Foles is that good but I think the Eagles found a good groove with improved defense, great offensive line protection, and continued greatness from RB LeSean McCoy.
The Packers went through quite a lot, losing Rodgers for a big part of the year, and winning some tough games. Their defense showed some heart against the 49ers. They also found, in a twist, a dependable running game. Eddie Lacy has been remarkable this season, and much needed. It's a long-needed option which now will open up the Packers' offense for real. What a great find for the Pack.
Losers:
...and OH are they big losers today! First the Chiefs. It was tough to really criticize them too hard but MY GOODNESS, how do you blow a 28 point lead in a PLAYOFF GAME when your QB throws four touchdowns. Never did I see a team play more "not to lose" than to win like I did with KC on Saturday. It was simply deplorable how little the Chiefs did to play aggressively in the 3rd and 4th quarters. I have to peg that on Andy Reid. Even with the injuries, most teams would close a game in which they had a 28 point lead.
Bengals. I think Cincy has had enough. Between Andy Dalton's turnover bugaboo and Marvin Lewis' awful job in playoff games, one or both have to go. It's as simple as that. The rest of the team has *way* too much talent to be underperforming in the playoffs. It needs to happen immediately. NOW.
That does it for NFL thoughts. Now time to get into the good stuff...
I think Friday and Saturday combined to be a very good weekend, but Friday in particular. A friend and I had the idea to go to Pasadena on Friday night, since we were about 3 days away from the BCS National Championship game at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena. When we went, we thought "I bet you we'll find some Auburn and Florida State Fans there", well we didn't just find fans there, we saw ESPN's Chris Fowler watching the end of the Cotton and Orange Bowl games at local Pasadena hotel bar! Would you believe it?
I remember going to the bar to watch the end of the game and I saw him there at a tiny table just behind the bar itself with his wife and I caught him in the corner of my eye. I started watching the game, and what a bunch of jokers that Orange Bowl game had... Clemson and Ohio State turning the ball over and over. Anyway, I peeked juuust a little to my left and it clicked that "hey! That looks like Chris Fowler!" But I kept watching, and waited to hear him talk just to make sure. Well surely enough, there's his familiar voice explaining to his wife about Florida State this and Auburn that and I think I even heard him go "Crazy game!" in response to the Orange Bowl and Cotton Bowl in progress.
What a scene it was... a pretty crowded bar, the in-house Friday Jazz band was out near the balcony playing some smooth jazz standards, and many huddled around three miniscule flat panel TV screens all in a stack over the bartender's shoulder. My friend didn't care about football so I had to go back from time to time to not leave the person behind.
Finally I go back one last time and Braxton Miller bumbles the game with his final interception. And we all have our various reactions. Mine was a facepalm because I thought Ohio State was actually going to win it. Meanwhile, our friend Chris goes to his phone... I bet you he was in the process of writing this tweet:
Boy can you believe that??? In the same bar as Chris Fowler! I wanted to go over to him and thank him for his many years of great work on ESPN, but I thought better of it since he was chatting w/ his spouse anyway. Why interrupt a great moment?
But, you know my impression of all this? Chris Fowler has a TRUE enthusiasm for college football. Some broadcasters are pros, do their job, but think of it as a job. Fowler has forever taken his work as a privilege and it's obvious that he has so much enthusiasm for the NCAA. It's really quite cool, and he has been quite cool with his fans as well. Fowler will never have the same attention given to him as say a Britney Spears or a Kim Kardashian, but he's been tremendous for so long. To me, he is a broadcasting icon to be compared with the likes of Dick Enberg or even Walter Cronkite.
Lastly on Fowler, he is in unbelievable shape! The guy must work out constantly... I don't know how old he is but he seems to be the same age as my father, and he's in as good a shape as anyone who plays football, bball, tennis, or any sport.
This next adage is dedicated to my friend in the Pennsylvania region, who we call "inderebuilding." He fell positively in love with a place in Pasadena called "Pie n' Burger." When you see the burgers and pies they have there, you'd fall in love too:
This photo is nothing but inspiring to me. I had a burger just like that on Friday night, before the Pasadena bar affair. With the burger, toasted to perfection, grilled just right, with fresh fixings, the thousand island sauce, and a slice of American cheese. Complimenting it was a slice of fresh Apple Pie, right out of the oven a-la-mode with Vanilla ice cream. It was simply delicious!
If I was just a spirit with no physical body to worry about, I would eat a Pie n' Burger hamburger three times a day every day, so long as I "lived." Sadly, I am human and have physical constraints lest I become a blimp. I only go to the PNB once every 2-3 months if that. When I go, it's like an event!
Now Saturday was eventful too... we went to Chili's to see the Chiefs/Colts game, then we switched venues to the apartment to watch the Saints beat the Eagles. Saturday night, we went to Enterprise Fish Company for a late night happy hour. Tremendous time I had... Coach was in effect consuming some beverages. I had two beers, nothing serious, and added some complimentary sourdough bread. We were just enjoying our time and even saw some babes in the room.
I think if there was one disappointment from the weekend, and I wouldn't even call it this, because it's just a mismatch of intended tastes, but the "disappointment" of sorts was the breakfast burrito I had on Sunday morning. It was from a place called "Marmalade Cafe" and it was a quality burrito... but it was not what I was looking for. The breakfast burrito had eggs, a lot of fresh veggies, some black beans, and only a little cheese. It was the healthiest breakfast burrito I *ever* had. Tremendous, but not my style. For breakfast burritos, I usually am after copious amounts of cheese, potatoes, bacon, eggs, and in some cases chorizo. However, the healthy styled burrito worked in my favor as we had snacks later in the day.
That's all from here. The busy part of the calendar year is now behind me and a new year begins. I hope to keep writing new stories to share with you! Thanks for reading. 'Til tomorrow!
oh and...
GO FLORIDA STATE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! OHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH OHH OHHOHOHHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH OHH OHOHOHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!
BREAK THE DAMN SEC STREAK OF BCS TITLE WINS! LET'S GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I am writing this entry on a Sunday, after some very dramatic NFL football. Coach invited two friends of his to the apartment to watch 49ers/Packers. Thrilling game! I wasn't sure if the 49ers would pull it out, but their defense held true when it counted. It was a low scoring game and it went in SF's favor. Got a juicy story coming up but first some NFL thoughts...
Boy! That capped an all-around terrific NFL Wild Card Round. Every game exciting... not every one was decided on the last play but 3 of the 4 were and it was a ton of fun to watch.
I suppose I could spend some time writing about the big winners and losers. All right here we go.
Winners:
Well, obviously the teams that won the games are big winners: Colts, huge comeback. 49ers, won an emotional, tough road game at Lambeau. Chargers, the magic ride continues! Saints, finally shook off the demons and mixed it up with a running game at Philly.
But you know what else? I think you have some other winners in effect, even for teams that lost.
The Eagles had a winning season and a good finish despite the loss in their playoff game. They were finished, completely written off, when Chip Kelly turned it around with the help of Nick Foles. I don't think Foles is that good but I think the Eagles found a good groove with improved defense, great offensive line protection, and continued greatness from RB LeSean McCoy.
The Packers went through quite a lot, losing Rodgers for a big part of the year, and winning some tough games. Their defense showed some heart against the 49ers. They also found, in a twist, a dependable running game. Eddie Lacy has been remarkable this season, and much needed. It's a long-needed option which now will open up the Packers' offense for real. What a great find for the Pack.
Losers:
...and OH are they big losers today! First the Chiefs. It was tough to really criticize them too hard but MY GOODNESS, how do you blow a 28 point lead in a PLAYOFF GAME when your QB throws four touchdowns. Never did I see a team play more "not to lose" than to win like I did with KC on Saturday. It was simply deplorable how little the Chiefs did to play aggressively in the 3rd and 4th quarters. I have to peg that on Andy Reid. Even with the injuries, most teams would close a game in which they had a 28 point lead.
Bengals. I think Cincy has had enough. Between Andy Dalton's turnover bugaboo and Marvin Lewis' awful job in playoff games, one or both have to go. It's as simple as that. The rest of the team has *way* too much talent to be underperforming in the playoffs. It needs to happen immediately. NOW.
That does it for NFL thoughts. Now time to get into the good stuff...
I think Friday and Saturday combined to be a very good weekend, but Friday in particular. A friend and I had the idea to go to Pasadena on Friday night, since we were about 3 days away from the BCS National Championship game at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena. When we went, we thought "I bet you we'll find some Auburn and Florida State Fans there", well we didn't just find fans there, we saw ESPN's Chris Fowler watching the end of the Cotton and Orange Bowl games at local Pasadena hotel bar! Would you believe it?
I remember going to the bar to watch the end of the game and I saw him there at a tiny table just behind the bar itself with his wife and I caught him in the corner of my eye. I started watching the game, and what a bunch of jokers that Orange Bowl game had... Clemson and Ohio State turning the ball over and over. Anyway, I peeked juuust a little to my left and it clicked that "hey! That looks like Chris Fowler!" But I kept watching, and waited to hear him talk just to make sure. Well surely enough, there's his familiar voice explaining to his wife about Florida State this and Auburn that and I think I even heard him go "Crazy game!" in response to the Orange Bowl and Cotton Bowl in progress.
What a scene it was... a pretty crowded bar, the in-house Friday Jazz band was out near the balcony playing some smooth jazz standards, and many huddled around three miniscule flat panel TV screens all in a stack over the bartender's shoulder. My friend didn't care about football so I had to go back from time to time to not leave the person behind.
Finally I go back one last time and Braxton Miller bumbles the game with his final interception. And we all have our various reactions. Mine was a facepalm because I thought Ohio State was actually going to win it. Meanwhile, our friend Chris goes to his phone... I bet you he was in the process of writing this tweet:
4 BCS bowls, 4 upsets. Doubt that's happened before. But I'm in a bar, so I'm not gonna look it up.
Boy can you believe that??? In the same bar as Chris Fowler! I wanted to go over to him and thank him for his many years of great work on ESPN, but I thought better of it since he was chatting w/ his spouse anyway. Why interrupt a great moment?
But, you know my impression of all this? Chris Fowler has a TRUE enthusiasm for college football. Some broadcasters are pros, do their job, but think of it as a job. Fowler has forever taken his work as a privilege and it's obvious that he has so much enthusiasm for the NCAA. It's really quite cool, and he has been quite cool with his fans as well. Fowler will never have the same attention given to him as say a Britney Spears or a Kim Kardashian, but he's been tremendous for so long. To me, he is a broadcasting icon to be compared with the likes of Dick Enberg or even Walter Cronkite.
Lastly on Fowler, he is in unbelievable shape! The guy must work out constantly... I don't know how old he is but he seems to be the same age as my father, and he's in as good a shape as anyone who plays football, bball, tennis, or any sport.
This next adage is dedicated to my friend in the Pennsylvania region, who we call "inderebuilding." He fell positively in love with a place in Pasadena called "Pie n' Burger." When you see the burgers and pies they have there, you'd fall in love too:
This photo is nothing but inspiring to me. I had a burger just like that on Friday night, before the Pasadena bar affair. With the burger, toasted to perfection, grilled just right, with fresh fixings, the thousand island sauce, and a slice of American cheese. Complimenting it was a slice of fresh Apple Pie, right out of the oven a-la-mode with Vanilla ice cream. It was simply delicious!
If I was just a spirit with no physical body to worry about, I would eat a Pie n' Burger hamburger three times a day every day, so long as I "lived." Sadly, I am human and have physical constraints lest I become a blimp. I only go to the PNB once every 2-3 months if that. When I go, it's like an event!
Now Saturday was eventful too... we went to Chili's to see the Chiefs/Colts game, then we switched venues to the apartment to watch the Saints beat the Eagles. Saturday night, we went to Enterprise Fish Company for a late night happy hour. Tremendous time I had... Coach was in effect consuming some beverages. I had two beers, nothing serious, and added some complimentary sourdough bread. We were just enjoying our time and even saw some babes in the room.
I think if there was one disappointment from the weekend, and I wouldn't even call it this, because it's just a mismatch of intended tastes, but the "disappointment" of sorts was the breakfast burrito I had on Sunday morning. It was from a place called "Marmalade Cafe" and it was a quality burrito... but it was not what I was looking for. The breakfast burrito had eggs, a lot of fresh veggies, some black beans, and only a little cheese. It was the healthiest breakfast burrito I *ever* had. Tremendous, but not my style. For breakfast burritos, I usually am after copious amounts of cheese, potatoes, bacon, eggs, and in some cases chorizo. However, the healthy styled burrito worked in my favor as we had snacks later in the day.
That's all from here. The busy part of the calendar year is now behind me and a new year begins. I hope to keep writing new stories to share with you! Thanks for reading. 'Til tomorrow!
oh and...
GO FLORIDA STATE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! OHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH OHH OHHOHOHHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH OHH OHOHOHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!
BREAK THE DAMN SEC STREAK OF BCS TITLE WINS! LET'S GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Tyler's Investments Champions: John in CT and Andy in Seattle!
I discussed the details to our two leaders and we all agreed to award both John in CT and Andy in Seattle as Co-Champions of "Tyler's Investments".
Way to go John and Andy! Great job picking games all season long.
This was a lot of fun to organize and follow all year. I hope we can resume our Investments of the week for the 2014 Football Season. Thanks to all who participated: John, Andy, Ottis, Ron, and Tyler in Moorpark.
Way to go John and Andy! Great job picking games all season long.
This was a lot of fun to organize and follow all year. I hope we can resume our Investments of the week for the 2014 Football Season. Thanks to all who participated: John, Andy, Ottis, Ron, and Tyler in Moorpark.
Tyler's Investments Results: We got a tie!
It turns out that we have a tie at the top of the standings between John in CT and Andy in Seattle. In computing win percentage I calculate ties as half wins... under that metric, I have computed both persons to finish with the same season winning percentage: .5625
Hit on: Oregon State -3, UCLA -7, Clemson +2.5.
Missed on: Texas +14.
Record for bowl games: 3-1.
Final season record: 17-13-2 (.5625)
Andy in Seattle's Bowl Picks
Hit on: Oregon State -3, North Texas -6.5, South Carolina even.
Missed on: Texas +14
Record for bowl games: 3-1
Final season record: 13-10-1 (.5625)
Now for the best of the rest....
Say Hello to Ottis Bowl Picks
Hit on: Kansas State -3.5, Michigan State +4.5
Missed on: Alabama -16, Bowling Green -5
Record for bowl games: 2-2
Final season record: 12-12 (.500)
Ron in NJ's Bowl Picks
Hit on: UCLA -7
Missed on: Cincinnati +3, Texas A&M -11.5, Alabama -16
Record for bowl games: 1-3
Final season record: 11-12-1 (.479)
Tyler in Moorpark has one game pending, Florida State -8.5. However, it will not be sufficient to make up the ground he needed to win the contest. With that in mind here is what he hit and missed on so far:
Hit on: Iowa +7.5
Missed on: Ohio State -2.5, Stanford -4.5
Record for bowl games pending FSU: 1-2 (maximum possible score of 2-2 if FSU hits)
Final season record: 14-17 pending the FSU game. (.451 currently. Will be .468 if FSU covers or .438 if FSU doesn't cover)
Here are the final standings as I calculated in Excel. The win percentage formula is: [Wins + (Ties/2) ] / Total Games.
Andy and John are currently tied. John has chosen 32 games whereas Andy selected 24 games since he joined the challenge 2 weeks later. I'll discuss with our investors to determine how to break the tie. Stay tuned!
Hit on: Oregon State -3, UCLA -7, Clemson +2.5.
Missed on: Texas +14.
Record for bowl games: 3-1.
Final season record: 17-13-2 (.5625)
Andy in Seattle's Bowl Picks
Hit on: Oregon State -3, North Texas -6.5, South Carolina even.
Missed on: Texas +14
Record for bowl games: 3-1
Final season record: 13-10-1 (.5625)
Now for the best of the rest....
Say Hello to Ottis Bowl Picks
Hit on: Kansas State -3.5, Michigan State +4.5
Missed on: Alabama -16, Bowling Green -5
Record for bowl games: 2-2
Final season record: 12-12 (.500)
Ron in NJ's Bowl Picks
Hit on: UCLA -7
Missed on: Cincinnati +3, Texas A&M -11.5, Alabama -16
Record for bowl games: 1-3
Final season record: 11-12-1 (.479)
Tyler in Moorpark has one game pending, Florida State -8.5. However, it will not be sufficient to make up the ground he needed to win the contest. With that in mind here is what he hit and missed on so far:
Hit on: Iowa +7.5
Missed on: Ohio State -2.5, Stanford -4.5
Record for bowl games pending FSU: 1-2 (maximum possible score of 2-2 if FSU hits)
Final season record: 14-17 pending the FSU game. (.451 currently. Will be .468 if FSU covers or .438 if FSU doesn't cover)
Here are the final standings as I calculated in Excel. The win percentage formula is: [Wins + (Ties/2) ] / Total Games.
Andy and John are currently tied. John has chosen 32 games whereas Andy selected 24 games since he joined the challenge 2 weeks later. I'll discuss with our investors to determine how to break the tie. Stay tuned!
Friday, January 3, 2014
Dave's NFL Wild Card Round Picks (blam!) of the Week
My friends, it's time to divulge my NFL Playoff picks of the weekend.
They're far from LOCKS. Very few playoff games are easy to call, but with all the Wild Card matchups being so close, you can see any of these games going either direction. Here are my picks.
First, in Indy, I went back and forth on this game but ultimately decided on the Chiefs. People have really overrated Indy's defense after the Reggie Wayne injury. Without him, the Chiefs look pretty bad offensively. Richardson may have his day here and there at RB, but overall it's not much. The Chiefs were blown out at home vs this Indy team but Andy Reid can prepare the Chiefs to come back much stronger this time out. It really was just a handful of games that put the game out of reach. Otherwise, the Chiefs went toe to toe with the Colts defensively. It winds up being a good matchup... and in a game where either side can take it, I'll take the points and go Chiefs +2.5 at Indy.
Next up, here's a game I *love*. The Saints and their blitz package figure to give Eagles QB Nick Foles fits and I get the sense that despite the cold weather and the Saints' history of road playoff failure, they can finally break the spell and beat the Eagles. Officially we'll go Saints +2.5 at Philadelphia, leaving the prospect of a "close loss" available.
Next, to Cincy where, it would seem that the Bungles would smack the tar out of the Chargers after their emotional last three weeks, but on the other hand, it's hard to refute the Bengals' demons with playoff games. In the Marvin Lewis era, he's 0-4 in playoff games, leaving the Bengals without a playoff win since 1990. I think this is their shot to finally break the string, but it would be foolish to expect them to win convincingly. The Chargers make this one interesting, I have Chargers +7 at Cincy, and after all, even when San Diego loses, they usually aren't losing by more than a touchdown. The Bolts get so many oh so close games.
Lastly, we go to Lambeau and the bitter cold of Green Bay where the 49ers play the Packers. The 49ers have had a great matchup advantage over GB in the last two seasons, with Colin Kaepernick having his way with the Packer defense. It doesn't appear much has changed in the way of personnel, and even with Aaron Rodgers, the Packers could have a tough time beating the 49ers. I can see Green Bay winning the game, but my feeling is the 49ers will win and cover. I select the 49ers -3 at Green Bay.
To recap: Chiefs +2.5, Saints +2.5, Chargers +7. 49ers -3. Interestingly I did not take any home teams against the spread. We'll see if this move comes back to bite me. Enjoy the games!
They're far from LOCKS. Very few playoff games are easy to call, but with all the Wild Card matchups being so close, you can see any of these games going either direction. Here are my picks.
First, in Indy, I went back and forth on this game but ultimately decided on the Chiefs. People have really overrated Indy's defense after the Reggie Wayne injury. Without him, the Chiefs look pretty bad offensively. Richardson may have his day here and there at RB, but overall it's not much. The Chiefs were blown out at home vs this Indy team but Andy Reid can prepare the Chiefs to come back much stronger this time out. It really was just a handful of games that put the game out of reach. Otherwise, the Chiefs went toe to toe with the Colts defensively. It winds up being a good matchup... and in a game where either side can take it, I'll take the points and go Chiefs +2.5 at Indy.
Next up, here's a game I *love*. The Saints and their blitz package figure to give Eagles QB Nick Foles fits and I get the sense that despite the cold weather and the Saints' history of road playoff failure, they can finally break the spell and beat the Eagles. Officially we'll go Saints +2.5 at Philadelphia, leaving the prospect of a "close loss" available.
Next, to Cincy where, it would seem that the Bungles would smack the tar out of the Chargers after their emotional last three weeks, but on the other hand, it's hard to refute the Bengals' demons with playoff games. In the Marvin Lewis era, he's 0-4 in playoff games, leaving the Bengals without a playoff win since 1990. I think this is their shot to finally break the string, but it would be foolish to expect them to win convincingly. The Chargers make this one interesting, I have Chargers +7 at Cincy, and after all, even when San Diego loses, they usually aren't losing by more than a touchdown. The Bolts get so many oh so close games.
Lastly, we go to Lambeau and the bitter cold of Green Bay where the 49ers play the Packers. The 49ers have had a great matchup advantage over GB in the last two seasons, with Colin Kaepernick having his way with the Packer defense. It doesn't appear much has changed in the way of personnel, and even with Aaron Rodgers, the Packers could have a tough time beating the 49ers. I can see Green Bay winning the game, but my feeling is the 49ers will win and cover. I select the 49ers -3 at Green Bay.
To recap: Chiefs +2.5, Saints +2.5, Chargers +7. 49ers -3. Interestingly I did not take any home teams against the spread. We'll see if this move comes back to bite me. Enjoy the games!
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