Dave's LOCKS of the Week: September 3rd

Two LOCKS this week that I *love*.  Take these for what they're worth in light of last week. 

I will add that I made three additional picks over the weekend which played out much better.  For Sunday and Monday, I chose Utah State +4 (@TEN), Baylor -34 (home), and Louisville -4.5 (home).   The last two hit but we won't count that towards our season total.   I'll play it smarter this week and go with only the most obvious choices.  Here are my two LOCKS for this week:

Michigan State +12.5 at Oregon.   When you talk about Oregon's ineptitude against physical teams, I would think, despite Michigan State losing a handful of defensive guys this year, you're looking at a matchup that would play out much closer than 12.5 points, even at Oregon.  Stanford showed us this formula time and time again against the Ducks, and Michigan State did one better than that beating Stanford at, in essence, its own game at the Rose Bowl.  For that argument alone, it's incredible to think Oregon is favored by that much.  Even without Denard covering passes, I like Michigan State to make it interesting.

That is, however, why they play the games.  Onward.

My second pick is me being a goober with Arizona State's terribly coached, terribly disciplined team. Todd Graham is a miserable in-game coach and I think, yet again, they're giving way too many points at New Mexico.   I can't speak to what specifically they have returning for '14, but this pick is more about ASU not being a clean enough team to build a 26 point lead on the road.  26 points!!  I grant you NM is not a great offense but that is a ton for a sloppy team like ASU.  New Mexico +26 at home.

Two picks this week:   Michigan State +12.5 and NM +26.