Dave's LOCKS of the Week: November 27th

Gobble up for a Turkey Edition of

Dave's (womp!)
LOCKS (crash!)
of the Week (screech)

This week, we're going to go back to our roots.  When it all started, our LOCKS of the Week feature showcased exactly three NFL games and no college picks.  We also were more verbose and added some entertainment and catchy puns into our individual picks.  Check out our very first LOCKS of the Week on this blog:

Dolphins +3 vs Jets
Falcons +3 vs Lions
Texans +6.5 at Steelers  plus the over of 43 pts
posted September 3, 2008

and how'd they do??

Jets 20, Dolphins 14 (loss)
Falcons 34, Lions 21 (win)
Steelers 38, Texans 17 (loss); over of 43 DID hit.

We've come a long way since then, and we've featured a multitude of picks from all over football - some weeks up to 7 games at a time, and others only two, but this week, we're back to three NFL picks so let's see how we do in 2013!

To the picks...!

We begin with an addendum:  All week long we hoped to see the Cowboys go up to a ten point favorite, but it didn't happen, so we're going to leave that game alone.  I definitely think the Raiders will at least stay in the game for a while, but it's *just* small enough of a point spread to back off.

Now to the Turkey game we WILL pick, in the Crab City, we're taking the Steelers to cover +3 against the Ravens.  Steelers are on the road, but they've looked a lot better of late.  Pit is able to run the ball much better with Le'Veon Bell, and Roethlisberger has completed some nice passes to the likes of Emmanuel Sanders, Antonio Brown, and Jerhicho Cotchery.  It's not always the same guy who stands out every week, but offensively, the Steelers look much better.

By contrast, the Ravens, still strong defensively, look really miserable on the other side of the ball.  Joe Flacco has been a complete joke this season, throwing 14 interceptions against this 14 touchdown passes, and this is including a run of four games where he's thrown at least one INT.  The last game without an interception?  Would you believe, their last game against the Steelers?

Nonetheless, we feel like the better Quarterback, Offense, and potentially defense, will win out.  Steelers +3 at Baltimore

Next, we're looking at the Carolina Panthers at home against the Bucs.  One might think the Bucs are on a roll and ready to make things very interesting for Carolina.  You'd think correctly, but bear in mind, the Panthers destroyed the Bucs every which way in their previous matchup.  At home, having already avoided the potential trap game with Miami, we feel like the Panthers should go back to covering the spread as they've managed to do for a large part of the year.  It's rare this year to see the Panthers lose out "against the spread."  As a matter of fact, the Bucs' three game winning streak would lead a lot of bettors to take them on the strength of momentum.  Be careful my friends!  Vegas has you right where they want you.  Instead, we'll go with the more complete team, a pretty good offense with Cam Newton and Steve Smith among others, plus a healthier starting RB tandem of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.  Defensively, the Panthers will rough it up against Tampa Bay and unlike the previous three weeks, the Panthers would be smart enough, we would think, to limit giveaways which Tampa used for each of their last two wins.  The Panthers are giving 8 and that went down from 8.5: we'll take the adjustment.  Panthers -8 vs Tampa Bay.

Finally, we roll to the California Coast, and take a game I absolutely *love*.  The Bengals are returning to the field off of a bye week AND they're going to play a Chargers team that just won a dramatic game at Kansas City.  The Bengals have great offensive personnel -- and Andy Dalton, but their defense is what's really going to shine through.  An assortment of pass rushers and reasonable coverage down field will take apart Philip Rivers.  Bear in mind, Rivers' receiver options are as good as they've been with a re-born Antonio Gates among others.  Nonetheless, I think A.J. Green of Cincinnati is going to present a whole lot of matchup problems for a suspect San Diego secondary.  As long as the Bungles can run the ball effectively they're going to take this one in San Diego.  It's a close game, but we have Cincinnati.   Bengals +2 at San Diego.

Have a wonderful Thanksgiving and enjoy the games, and the meals.   We'll also post "Tyler's Investments" tomorrow morning along w/ challenger picks.  Enjoy the weekend!

Recap:  Steelers +3 at BAL; Panthers -8 vs TB; Bengals +2 at SD