Predicting the BCS Top 10

The NCAA Pre-Season rankings were released over the weekend with the following teams:

AP Top 25
RK	TEAM	RECORD	PTS
1	Alabama (54)	0-0	1491
2	Ohio State (3)	0-0	1400
3	Boise State (1)	0-0	1336
4	Florida	0-0	1237
5	Texas (1)	0-0	1223
6	TCU	0-0	1160
7	Oklahoma (1)	0-0	1104
8	Nebraska	0-0	1033
9	Iowa	0-0	1007
10	Virginia Tech	0-0	973

To be honest with you, I think these are great rankings! A lot of people complained about Boise State. And? Boise State has a lousy schedule and their only competition is a neutral site game against Virginia Tech, which they'll win of course, to fan the flames.

I don't think Boise has the kind of players that can compete with any of these other teams on a week to week basis. Not even TCU. Va Tech is the only exception. I'd probably put Oregon above Va Tech with my limited knowledge of College Football.

So! Who of these teams will hang around and remain in the Top Ten at the end of the year (and by "Top Ten" we mean the BCS Top Ten which gets released in November)?

My picks:

Alabama
Florida
Ohio State
Texas
Oklahoma

I definitely wanted to include Nebraska, but Suh will now be an NFL player and I'm not familiar with the remainder of the team to make a competent prediction. It's possible to see them in there. Alabama is an easy one: they returned many of their starters and figure to at least be in the Top Five. Ohio State should be ready to go: they're well coached and now feature a seasoned Terrelle Pryor. Pryor is overrated, but is also good enough to win the majority of their games.

Texas continues to recruit well, so despite losing McCoy, I think that is a team to beat in the salvaged Big XII. Florida will win on the strength of their size and speed, but won't contend for a National Title (remember, Tebow is now a pro at Denver).

Boise State has too much pressure. I can't help but think about all the expectations weighed on Oregon a year ago when LeGarrette Blount nearly derailed the season in Week One! Ironically enough, that game went to Boise State. Nonetheless, the Ducks carried on, rebounded and made the Rose Bowl.

The difference is, Oregon had a large conference with USC on its schedule which really boosted the brownie points when the Ducks beat the Men of Troy. What will Boise State fall back on? Fresno State?! Idaho?!?! It's a no-win situation for Boise State, but it's also their own fault for not willing themselves to schedule more road games out of conference. SC would have been happy to host the Broncos. Any SEC team would pony up. Boise State has to go out and challenge the best to be the best. Remember: that's what USC does, and always has done.

So in all, it leaves Boise with no room for error. Lose one game and their ranking drops a ton. They may finish in the mid-teens.

Who knows how much of this list will truly remain. I listed 5 teams but that may be generous. We shall see.