2014 so far has been one of the toughest seasons for football predictions in modern history. Just look at how unpredictable this weekend was. #1 goes down. #3 goes down. (these may be different rankings in other polls) #6 goes down! #4 goes down! Alabama, UCLA, Oregon, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and more were wiped out of the undefeated ranks. My goodness, was it a wild week.
The consequence of this much manic unpredictability, with no newspapers or milkmen, not even TV, is that getting picks against the spread was nearly impossible, but one man made it out... the OAT MAN. He went 3-0 in picks leading up to the Jets game, and had they had any competitive fire or perhaps more importantly, more talent, on the team, he may have had our first 4-0 week of the year... but he still went 3-1 with the Jets pick missing.
Ron went 2-2, but it's as good as a win with the way many games were twisting and changing across college and pro football. The others were not so lucky, so we now will break down how all the picks went.
Say Hello to Ottis (3-1)
Hit with: Baylor, Louisville, Packers
Missed with: Jets
A little funny that his favorite team winds up being the letdown this week. Agains the spread, the Jets have had their moments, but not this time around in San Diego. Two of the picks he hit with were non-weekend games. Packers on Thursday and Louisville on Friday. And, if you remember, he picked L'ville "out of spite" to stick it to Syracuse. The gamble paid off! Oat Man also sweept his college picks.
Ron in NJ (2-2)
Hit with: Notre Dame, Colts
Missed with: Wisconsin, Falcons
Let me tell you: the Falcons' inability to close a game is pretty annoying. I digress. Ron had a gutty pick going with Notre Dame against Stanford, and they delivered for him in the late moments of their game. The Colts game seemed like it could go either way for two quarters but after the Ravens proved they didn't know how to score that week, the outcome was in hand for Indianapolis. Wisconsin, by the way, didn't just fail to cover, but they lost outright at a suddenly resurging Northwestern. That's 3 wins in a row for the Wildcats since that hopeless home loss to Northern Illinois. The Badgers probably blew their chance at a serious bowl game.
Andy in Seattle (1-3)
Hit with: Packers
Missed with: Oregon, Alabama, Cowboys
Really, these were a product of some tough luck in the latter two misses. Oregon was simply history repeating itself, but it seemed unusual for Oregon to lose this soon. Usually if they lost that first game, it was late in the season. 'Bama had control of the game leading up to half time, but the fourth quarter things fell apart and they lost altogether to Ole Miss at Oxford. The Cowboys game was shaky as many anticipated, but there was a very good shot at Dallas scoring more points, but one interception by Romo took away would-be points from the scoreboard. The Texans are showing themselves to be a better defense and that may prove to be an asset for them in Week 6. Houston next plays at Indy.
John in CT (0-4)
Hit with: none
Missed with: ECU, Tennessee, Falcons, Ravens
No sugarcoating it, this was a tough week for John. Both Tennessee and the Ravens had numerous chances... more than numerous, maybe abundant chances to score points and it didn't take. A tough break indeed. ECU had an odd moment where they were really hanging around with SMU, only to pull away later. I was as shocked as anyone else that SMU scored a few touchdowns. Things didn't play out well, but John still had a good cumulative record going into the week, so he is still in the mix for the contest's stop spot.
Oat Man's big week means he's still the leader, and he's the winner of Week 6. Here are our updated standings:
Say Hello to Ottis: 11-8-1
Ron in NJ: 9-10-1
John in CT: 8-12
Andy in Seattle: 7-13
The last three weeks haven't been kind to most of the Kids Club, but the use of four games each week keeps everyone in it, and things can twist and change just like the NFL's Witching Hour. We'll hope for better luck going into Week 6 later on.
Monday, October 6, 2014
LOCKS of the Week Results: 2-3 for Wk. 5, 6-13 overall
It's getting pretty bad my friends...
After a very optimistic start, my LOCKS of the Week still went a mediocre 2-3... not too bad for the volume of picks, but ultimately the last thing I needed with a 4-10 record going in. It's so bad right now I may consider taking a week off. That bad... really bad.
It's too bad too because I had some hunches I could have acted on to improve my record... it just goes to show you that no matter how informed you are, there still a lot of luck involved and that if you have a hunch it might be good to go with it.
Utah +13 at UCLA... even with that bad loss, actually, BECAUSE of that bad loss to Washington State I had to think Utah was going to play with fire. It was still a very good team. UCLA... similar situation but in reverse. They were SO dominant at ASU that it was liable they'd be laying off the gas pedal with the Oregon game one week away. So it was! And, regrettably I never acted on it.
Then you had good ole CINCY. The Bungles... doing what they always do, and lose a game where they were a clear favorite. That was the case last night with Cincy at the struggling, internally dissenting New England Patriots. Didn't act on it -- and! The Pats went on to win convincingly, despite being a 3 point dog at home.
The two games I *didn't* pick... and they delivered smashingly. Now to the games I did pick.
Hit on: Packers, Michigan (just barely)
Michigan needed a missed extra point from Rutgers to cover the spread, but them's the breaks. UM still lost at Rutghers by two points and their season is in a complete tailspin. Packers... it was the classic case of not overthinking it. I was pretty happy with that selection, and it proves to be the the easiest LOCK of the Week I've made in my entire 7 year career.
Ok... now to the losses.
Missed on: Falcons, Ravens, Texas A&M
A&M had to be the most disappointing of all of these. One would think they'd be hyped up and ready to defeat the Bulldogs on the road. One would think they'd play much better offensively, but instead of Kenny True, it was Dak Power (not his real name) and Mississippi State. By a lot. I never really though the defense would be that good, but the offense for A&M is what really surprised me. They looked brutal. Kenny flat out missed some of his receivers, and the rest of the time, guys wide open were just dropping passes for first downs. To be fair, the receivers were not open very often, and for that I give Mississippi State a lot of credit.
Prediction wise, it was a week that had much promise, started off well, but ultimately ended poorly. The NFL games, what can you really do? That's the NFL... It confounds me that the Falcons couldn't put one good game together on the road, even at the Meadowlands, especially after going up ten points. Then they gave up something like 17 unanswered points. NO GUTS!!!!
I also thought the Ravens would score once in a while.. silly me, I forgot that Joe Flacco is a complete spaz. Actually I did sense this, but I also sensed that there'd be enough offense to win anyway and turn that into an ugly game... this bothered me less because, first of all, I *hate* the Ravens so serves them right. Secondly, the eventual outcome of the game benefitted my fantasy team. I have the Indy fantasy defense and it went OFF. TY Hilton also had a great game, so I think this was a situation where even losing the pick was a win for me personally. Of all the picks to not hit, this one bothered me least.
So... These games have been anything but a lock. Couple that with USC's incompetence on the field in the fourth quarter against ASU, it was just a rough week for me personally, but I still had a great time with it! The upset alerts were great and the college schedule turned out some spectacular games!
We'll try it again for the so-called LOCKS of the Week... next week, perhaps.
After a very optimistic start, my LOCKS of the Week still went a mediocre 2-3... not too bad for the volume of picks, but ultimately the last thing I needed with a 4-10 record going in. It's so bad right now I may consider taking a week off. That bad... really bad.
It's too bad too because I had some hunches I could have acted on to improve my record... it just goes to show you that no matter how informed you are, there still a lot of luck involved and that if you have a hunch it might be good to go with it.
Utah +13 at UCLA... even with that bad loss, actually, BECAUSE of that bad loss to Washington State I had to think Utah was going to play with fire. It was still a very good team. UCLA... similar situation but in reverse. They were SO dominant at ASU that it was liable they'd be laying off the gas pedal with the Oregon game one week away. So it was! And, regrettably I never acted on it.
Then you had good ole CINCY. The Bungles... doing what they always do, and lose a game where they were a clear favorite. That was the case last night with Cincy at the struggling, internally dissenting New England Patriots. Didn't act on it -- and! The Pats went on to win convincingly, despite being a 3 point dog at home.
The two games I *didn't* pick... and they delivered smashingly. Now to the games I did pick.
Hit on: Packers, Michigan (just barely)
Michigan needed a missed extra point from Rutgers to cover the spread, but them's the breaks. UM still lost at Rutghers by two points and their season is in a complete tailspin. Packers... it was the classic case of not overthinking it. I was pretty happy with that selection, and it proves to be the the easiest LOCK of the Week I've made in my entire 7 year career.
Ok... now to the losses.
Missed on: Falcons, Ravens, Texas A&M
A&M had to be the most disappointing of all of these. One would think they'd be hyped up and ready to defeat the Bulldogs on the road. One would think they'd play much better offensively, but instead of Kenny True, it was Dak Power (not his real name) and Mississippi State. By a lot. I never really though the defense would be that good, but the offense for A&M is what really surprised me. They looked brutal. Kenny flat out missed some of his receivers, and the rest of the time, guys wide open were just dropping passes for first downs. To be fair, the receivers were not open very often, and for that I give Mississippi State a lot of credit.
Prediction wise, it was a week that had much promise, started off well, but ultimately ended poorly. The NFL games, what can you really do? That's the NFL... It confounds me that the Falcons couldn't put one good game together on the road, even at the Meadowlands, especially after going up ten points. Then they gave up something like 17 unanswered points. NO GUTS!!!!
I also thought the Ravens would score once in a while.. silly me, I forgot that Joe Flacco is a complete spaz. Actually I did sense this, but I also sensed that there'd be enough offense to win anyway and turn that into an ugly game... this bothered me less because, first of all, I *hate* the Ravens so serves them right. Secondly, the eventual outcome of the game benefitted my fantasy team. I have the Indy fantasy defense and it went OFF. TY Hilton also had a great game, so I think this was a situation where even losing the pick was a win for me personally. Of all the picks to not hit, this one bothered me least.
So... These games have been anything but a lock. Couple that with USC's incompetence on the field in the fourth quarter against ASU, it was just a rough week for me personally, but I still had a great time with it! The upset alerts were great and the college schedule turned out some spectacular games!
We'll try it again for the so-called LOCKS of the Week... next week, perhaps.
Mike Francesa NFL Week 5 Results: 2-1 in picks, now 11-7-1 for yr.
Mike does it again! Two favorites and one underdog, and two out of the three hit for NFL Week 5. Here's how it broke down.
Mike hit with: Bills, Steelers
Mike missed with: Saints
The Saints had a real letdown game against the Bucs at home and it took overtime for them to win. Hard to really fault anyone for taking the Saints in that spot. Boy, will the Saints ever get it together? They've played completely unconvincing football for a month and a half. The Bills was a particularly good value pick... 7 points for the Bills, and Buffalo wins outright. Great work by Mike. He's 2-1 for the week, and now 11-7-1 for the year, or "12-7" according to Mike's crack production team. We cannot verify his 12th win so for the moment we'll stay with 11.
It makes no difference, with Mike starting 0-3, he is now 11-4-1 since that time in just four weeks. Now to see if he keeps it going in Week 6.
Mike hit with: Bills, Steelers
Mike missed with: Saints
The Saints had a real letdown game against the Bucs at home and it took overtime for them to win. Hard to really fault anyone for taking the Saints in that spot. Boy, will the Saints ever get it together? They've played completely unconvincing football for a month and a half. The Bills was a particularly good value pick... 7 points for the Bills, and Buffalo wins outright. Great work by Mike. He's 2-1 for the week, and now 11-7-1 for the year, or "12-7" according to Mike's crack production team. We cannot verify his 12th win so for the moment we'll stay with 11.
It makes no difference, with Mike starting 0-3, he is now 11-4-1 since that time in just four weeks. Now to see if he keeps it going in Week 6.
Friday, October 3, 2014
Mike Francesa's Week 5 NFL Picks: October 3rd
In the league where they play……………………………….. for pay.
1-1-1 last week, and 9-6-1 after four weeks. We now enter NFL Week 5 and Mike Francesa has these picks:
Saints -10 vs Bucs
Bills +7 at Lions
Steelers -6 at Jaguars
Good luck to Mike's picks, and enjoy the games!
1-1-1 last week, and 9-6-1 after four weeks. We now enter NFL Week 5 and Mike Francesa has these picks:
Saints -10 vs Bucs
Bills +7 at Lions
Steelers -6 at Jaguars
Good luck to Mike's picks, and enjoy the games!
Mike Francesa NFL Week 4 Results: 1-1-1 (9-6-1 season record)
Sorry for posting these so late, in fact, it was after Week *5* started with last night's Vikings/Packers game. BUT... here are Mike Francesa's results for Week 4. He went 1-1-1, which was a decent week, but there were some big opportunities for his games to hit for him. The Steelers for example, they were up double digits, only to lose outright to Tampa Bay at home. The 49ers were down a pretty decent amount and actually were pretty charmed to push their -5, but if the Niners had played better from the start (specifically the offense, defense was great!), they could have won more convincingly.
So here they are! Mike's results after Week 4:
Hit with: Packers
Missed with: Steelers (a very *painful* miss I'd imagine)
Pushes: 49ers.
So for the year, Mike is now 9-6-1. We never deduced the mysterious "bonus win" Mike awarded himself, and our colleagues corroborate that this is his official record, no matter what he says at 5:30 today on WFAN AM and FM. What will he choose to build upon his record? We'll have that for you later today here on the Daveblog.
So here they are! Mike's results after Week 4:
Hit with: Packers
Missed with: Steelers (a very *painful* miss I'd imagine)
Pushes: 49ers.
So for the year, Mike is now 9-6-1. We never deduced the mysterious "bonus win" Mike awarded himself, and our colleagues corroborate that this is his official record, no matter what he says at 5:30 today on WFAN AM and FM. What will he choose to build upon his record? We'll have that for you later today here on the Daveblog.
Thursday, October 2, 2014
Dave's LOCKS of the Week: October 2nd
I waited a little longer this week, but here are LOCKS (blam!) of the Week.
This week I want to get an assist from the NFL schedule for picks. We have a huge array of ranked College Teams facing each other, and since the matchups are so close, it was tough to really feel confident about many of these teams. For me, even Alabama (-7) at Ole Miss didn't seem like enough of a LOCK for me despite my complete confidence that the Tide will win the game. It all boils down to Lane Kiffin and his dopey offense.. it's done well so far, but I'm curious to see what it's going to do against another ranked team. Tune in and see!
So, with some NFL point spreads that really jumped out at me, I have this week's LOCKS... we'll cover the NFL games first here we go.
Packers -8.5 vs Vikings: Bridgewater is looking more and more like he won't start the game. Interestingly, the line opened as "Packers -9" and that probably occurred just after the Vikings' last game against Atlanta. Bridgewater was carted off the field with what we believe is an ankle injury and it didn't look good, but there was some optimism as the week advanced for Ole Teddy. Unfortunately it doesn't look like he will play, so the Packers at home will have another pretty big offensive night, or expect to. Rodgers found his groove last week in Chicago, and I'm expecting more of the same with the Pack's wide open spread offense. What interests me most tonight is whether Eddie Lacy will have more of a say offensively. He improved last week, but he's off to a slow start to say the least.
Falcons +4 at Giants: It was impossible to say no to this. How could the Giants, who have just a terrible defense, have suddenly been rated this highly after a mere two wins? Two games against Washington (terrible) and Houston (also terrible) apparently was enough to swing the point spread into New York's favor? The Falcons struggle on the road, no doubt, but it's still a very potent offense and even as much as they lost at Minnesota last week, they were able to really run the ball and score points. Eli would be good for at least 1-2 interceptions, and I simply think the Giants are extremely overrated in this game. The Falcons will play much better than they did against a new QB a week ago; Falcons +4 all the way.
Ravens +3.5 at Colts: The Colts may look good on paper, but they're beating up on some very weak teams. Jacksonville one week, Tennessee the next (yep, I blew that one! I really thought they'd be good). The Ravens had a dogfight with Cincy that they lost, but they also have been incredibly dominant defensively against Carolina and Pittsburgh. It's tougher to explain the Browns game, but I really thought the Ravens would win the game this weekend over in Indianapolis. THEN, I saw that they were getting 3.5 points, this was a layup. The Colts defense still doesn't impress me, and even with a shaky QB, I think the Ravens can put together a win. Steve Smith really wanted to show up his old team a week ago... maybe he carries over some of that performance into Lucas Oil Stadium too!
Now to the college games... it was tough to seek out some winners but I kinda like these calls:
Texas A&M -2.5 vs Mississippi State: And let's be honest here. The hype for Mississippi State comes from two games -- one bowl win against RICE, and a stunning blowout upset of LSU at the Bayou. Two stinkin' games... now great performances both, but not enough of a sample size for me to say Mississippi State is a big time team. I would concede that the Bulldogs play much better offensively and that's in big part due to rising star Dak Prescott. But, over on the other side, you get another rising star, Kenny Hill, picking up right where Johnny Manziel left off for A&M. So far they've had some tough tests and passed them both. They probably shouldn't have won the game against Arkansas. With that said, Sumlin and co. have the better overall track record and let's not forget, a much tougher schedule so far in '14: South Carolina, and Arkansas, and maybe even Rice to an extent. Mississippi State played Southern Miss, UAB, and South Alabama before beating LSU and getting a week off. Call me nuts but I'll go with the better coach and the more seasoned program. A&M -2.5 even on the road.
and lastly a personal favorite pick of mine for the weekend...
Michigan +3 at Rutgers: Never in any context would we have seen a perennial past-powerhouse like Michigan getting points on the road on a borderline FBS team, let alone Big Ten team, like Rutgers. Then we saw the Wolverines lose big-time to Minnesota at home. It just can't get any worse for the Maize and Blue, but while that's all true, it seems a little ridiculous to be giving points to Rutgers against a big ten opponent. Both teams can struggle to score against big competition, but I also think this game proves to be a fun moment for this writer. There are really only two outcomes and both of them I'll enjoy -- either Michigan wins the game and the pick hits, or they lose and get embarrassed. One of my favorite picks of the year, I can't lose!
There you have it, five games this week. three NFL and two NCAA. Here's to a great weekend!
This week I want to get an assist from the NFL schedule for picks. We have a huge array of ranked College Teams facing each other, and since the matchups are so close, it was tough to really feel confident about many of these teams. For me, even Alabama (-7) at Ole Miss didn't seem like enough of a LOCK for me despite my complete confidence that the Tide will win the game. It all boils down to Lane Kiffin and his dopey offense.. it's done well so far, but I'm curious to see what it's going to do against another ranked team. Tune in and see!
So, with some NFL point spreads that really jumped out at me, I have this week's LOCKS... we'll cover the NFL games first here we go.
Packers -8.5 vs Vikings: Bridgewater is looking more and more like he won't start the game. Interestingly, the line opened as "Packers -9" and that probably occurred just after the Vikings' last game against Atlanta. Bridgewater was carted off the field with what we believe is an ankle injury and it didn't look good, but there was some optimism as the week advanced for Ole Teddy. Unfortunately it doesn't look like he will play, so the Packers at home will have another pretty big offensive night, or expect to. Rodgers found his groove last week in Chicago, and I'm expecting more of the same with the Pack's wide open spread offense. What interests me most tonight is whether Eddie Lacy will have more of a say offensively. He improved last week, but he's off to a slow start to say the least.
Falcons +4 at Giants: It was impossible to say no to this. How could the Giants, who have just a terrible defense, have suddenly been rated this highly after a mere two wins? Two games against Washington (terrible) and Houston (also terrible) apparently was enough to swing the point spread into New York's favor? The Falcons struggle on the road, no doubt, but it's still a very potent offense and even as much as they lost at Minnesota last week, they were able to really run the ball and score points. Eli would be good for at least 1-2 interceptions, and I simply think the Giants are extremely overrated in this game. The Falcons will play much better than they did against a new QB a week ago; Falcons +4 all the way.
Ravens +3.5 at Colts: The Colts may look good on paper, but they're beating up on some very weak teams. Jacksonville one week, Tennessee the next (yep, I blew that one! I really thought they'd be good). The Ravens had a dogfight with Cincy that they lost, but they also have been incredibly dominant defensively against Carolina and Pittsburgh. It's tougher to explain the Browns game, but I really thought the Ravens would win the game this weekend over in Indianapolis. THEN, I saw that they were getting 3.5 points, this was a layup. The Colts defense still doesn't impress me, and even with a shaky QB, I think the Ravens can put together a win. Steve Smith really wanted to show up his old team a week ago... maybe he carries over some of that performance into Lucas Oil Stadium too!
Now to the college games... it was tough to seek out some winners but I kinda like these calls:
Texas A&M -2.5 vs Mississippi State: And let's be honest here. The hype for Mississippi State comes from two games -- one bowl win against RICE, and a stunning blowout upset of LSU at the Bayou. Two stinkin' games... now great performances both, but not enough of a sample size for me to say Mississippi State is a big time team. I would concede that the Bulldogs play much better offensively and that's in big part due to rising star Dak Prescott. But, over on the other side, you get another rising star, Kenny Hill, picking up right where Johnny Manziel left off for A&M. So far they've had some tough tests and passed them both. They probably shouldn't have won the game against Arkansas. With that said, Sumlin and co. have the better overall track record and let's not forget, a much tougher schedule so far in '14: South Carolina, and Arkansas, and maybe even Rice to an extent. Mississippi State played Southern Miss, UAB, and South Alabama before beating LSU and getting a week off. Call me nuts but I'll go with the better coach and the more seasoned program. A&M -2.5 even on the road.
and lastly a personal favorite pick of mine for the weekend...
Michigan +3 at Rutgers: Never in any context would we have seen a perennial past-powerhouse like Michigan getting points on the road on a borderline FBS team, let alone Big Ten team, like Rutgers. Then we saw the Wolverines lose big-time to Minnesota at home. It just can't get any worse for the Maize and Blue, but while that's all true, it seems a little ridiculous to be giving points to Rutgers against a big ten opponent. Both teams can struggle to score against big competition, but I also think this game proves to be a fun moment for this writer. There are really only two outcomes and both of them I'll enjoy -- either Michigan wins the game and the pick hits, or they lose and get embarrassed. One of my favorite picks of the year, I can't lose!
There you have it, five games this week. three NFL and two NCAA. Here's to a great weekend!
Wednesday, October 1, 2014
Kids Club Podcast Picks: Week 5 (Oct. 1)
We had an extended "Kids Club" spot tonight on the #DITCOW podcast due to Junk Man's unfortunate trouble with his car. We all extend best wishes to the Junk Man and hope he gets home safely (or got home safely by the time we publish this).
So, we carried on with the extra allotted time and even spoke about the MLB Postseason. So, let's see how our panelists try to build on their record here for Week 5. Here are the picks...
Say Hello to Ottis (8-7-1)
Baylor -15 at Texas
Louisville -2.5 at Syracuse
Jets +7 at Chargers
Packers -8.5 vs Vikings
John in CT (8-8)
ECU -42 vs SMU
Tennessee -3 vs Florida
Falcons +4 at Giants
Ravens +3.5 at Colts
Ron in NJ (7-8-1)
Notre Dame +2 vs Stanford
Wisconsin -8 at Northwestern
Falcons +4 at Giants
Colts -3.5 vs Ravens
Andy in Seattle (6-10)
Oregon -23.5 vs Arizona
Alabama -6 at Ole Miss
Packers -8.5 vs Vikings
Cowboys -6 vs Texans
Good luck to all the picks, and here's to a big Week 5!
So, we carried on with the extra allotted time and even spoke about the MLB Postseason. So, let's see how our panelists try to build on their record here for Week 5. Here are the picks...
Say Hello to Ottis (8-7-1)
Baylor -15 at Texas
Louisville -2.5 at Syracuse
Jets +7 at Chargers
Packers -8.5 vs Vikings
John in CT (8-8)
ECU -42 vs SMU
Tennessee -3 vs Florida
Falcons +4 at Giants
Ravens +3.5 at Colts
Ron in NJ (7-8-1)
Notre Dame +2 vs Stanford
Wisconsin -8 at Northwestern
Falcons +4 at Giants
Colts -3.5 vs Ravens
Andy in Seattle (6-10)
Oregon -23.5 vs Arizona
Alabama -6 at Ole Miss
Packers -8.5 vs Vikings
Cowboys -6 vs Texans
Good luck to all the picks, and here's to a big Week 5!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
