Monday, October 6, 2014

LOCKS of the Week Results: 2-3 for Wk. 5, 6-13 overall

It's getting pretty bad my friends...

After a very optimistic start, my LOCKS of the Week still went a mediocre 2-3... not too bad for the volume of picks, but ultimately the last thing I needed with a 4-10 record going in.   It's so bad right now I may consider taking a week off.  That bad... really bad.

It's too bad too because I had some hunches I could have acted on to improve my record... it just goes to show you that no matter how informed you are, there still a lot of luck involved and that if you have a hunch it might be good to go with it.

Utah +13 at UCLA... even with that bad loss, actually, BECAUSE of that bad loss to Washington State I had to think Utah was going to play with fire.   It was still a very good team.   UCLA... similar situation but in reverse.  They were SO dominant at ASU that it was liable they'd be laying off the gas pedal with the Oregon game one week away.  So it was!  And, regrettably I never acted on it.

Then you had good ole CINCY.  The Bungles... doing what they always do, and lose a game where they were a clear favorite.   That was the case last night with Cincy at the struggling, internally dissenting New England Patriots.  Didn't act on it -- and!  The Pats went on to win convincingly, despite being a 3 point dog at home.

The two games I *didn't* pick... and they delivered smashingly.  Now to the games I did pick.

Hit on: Packers, Michigan (just barely)

Michigan needed a missed extra point from Rutgers to cover the spread, but them's the breaks.  UM still lost at Rutghers by two points and their season is in a complete tailspin.  Packers... it was the classic case of not overthinking it.  I was pretty happy with that selection, and it proves to be the the easiest LOCK of the Week I've made in my entire 7 year career.

Ok... now to the losses.

Missed on: Falcons, Ravens, Texas A&M

A&M had to be the most disappointing of all of these.  One would think they'd be hyped up and ready to defeat the Bulldogs on the road.  One would think they'd play much better offensively, but instead of Kenny True, it was Dak Power (not his real name) and Mississippi State.  By a lot.  I never really though the defense would be that good, but the offense for A&M is what really surprised me.  They looked brutal.  Kenny flat out missed some of his receivers, and the rest of the time, guys wide open were just dropping passes for first downs.   To be fair, the receivers were not open very often, and for that I give Mississippi State a lot of credit.

Prediction wise, it was a week that had much promise, started off well, but ultimately ended poorly.  The NFL games, what can you really do?  That's the NFL... It confounds me that the Falcons couldn't put one good game together on the road, even at the Meadowlands, especially after going up ten points.  Then they gave up something like 17 unanswered points.  NO GUTS!!!!

I also thought the Ravens would score once in a while.. silly me, I forgot that Joe Flacco is a complete spaz.   Actually I did sense this, but I also sensed that there'd be enough offense to win anyway and turn that into an ugly game... this bothered me less because, first of all, I *hate* the Ravens so serves them right.  Secondly, the eventual outcome of the game benefitted my fantasy team.  I have the Indy fantasy defense and it went OFF.  TY Hilton also had a great game, so I think this was a situation where even losing the pick was a win for me personally.    Of all the picks to not hit, this one bothered me least.

So...   These games have been anything but a lock.  Couple that with USC's incompetence on the field in the fourth quarter against ASU, it was just a rough week for me personally, but I still had a great time with it!  The upset alerts were great and the college schedule turned out some spectacular games!

We'll try it again for the so-called LOCKS of the Week... next week, perhaps.

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