MY St. Louis Rams

Way back in July, when I was in New York City, I predicted the Rams would go 11-5 and win the NFC West. People laughed at me. Everybody who had a mouth lambasted my projection. They said "What a MORON! He predicted the Rams! They'll be lucky to win a game." People threw tomatoes at me as I crossed the street...

Ok no they didn't, but let's pretend...

Weeks 1-5, It looked bleak. The Rams went 0-5 and got outscored by a combined 104 points. Coach Linehan was fired. Then... it happened.

A bye week! But besides that...

The Rams came out with a blaze of fire! First they hung in there, and gutted out a win in Washington. Then this week, they CLOBBERED the Dallas Cowboys 34-14! Back to back wins versus the vaunted NFC East. I recognize the Cowboys used their backup QB, but let's face it, this was domination! It's no fluke...

The Rams are BACK baby!

The Perfect Season: Part Two

Last year, the country was turned on its ear by the New England Patriots and their undefeated regular season. It seemed impossible! Never before did a team go 16-0. These days even going 6-0 is difficult.

This year the world eagerly awaits the first 0-16 season in NFL history. Somebody can do it! Who is the best candidate?

So far, there are four teams in the NFL without a win: the 0-4 Texans, the 0-4 Rams, the 0-4 Lions, and the 0-5 Bungles.

Step One: Toughest Schedule

There is no empirical way to evaluate a team's remaining schedule. The best bet is to simply go by the number of teams scheduled who are currently .500 or better. Each team listed below is linked to its remaining 2008 Schedule, followed by a tally of games versus said teams.

Remaining games vs. teams .500 or better

Rams: 8
Lions: 6
Bungles: 5
Texans: 5

When it rains, it pours. It's so funny that both St. Louis and Detroit have already played some tough teams, and they are still due to play many more. Compounding their season, the Lions get a number of 2-3 teams who figure to be solid: the Jags, the Saints, and the Vikings (twice!).

Head to Head Matchups: Next week, the Lions and Texans will play each other, in Houston! That will eliminate a candidate instantly. In addition, the Texans will play the Bungles, also in Houston.

Step Two: Turnover Ratio

Who has the worst turnover ratio of the bunch? One can tell right away from the chart below the Lions lead the pack and it's quite gruesome!

Turnover Ratio

Lions: -6
Texans: -5
Bungles: -4
Rams: -3

Truly amazing. You'd think with all the points the Rams give up they'd lead the pack in negative turnovers. Not the case! It's possible the Rams have some very hard-core special teams issues. Meanwhile, the Lions are, predictably, Number One. If they're gonna turn it over, they might as well go all out, right?

Step Three: Point Differential

Point Differential is the difference between the number of points the team scores, and the number of points the team allows. The larger the number, the better the point differential. This is a remarkably accurate way to predict the legitimacy of a team's record in baseball, and it works similarly in the NFL. Here's where our fearsome foursome stand.

Point Differential

Rams: -104
Lions: -81
Texans: -47
Bungles: -44

Let's hear it for the Rams! Blowing away the competition in negative point differential, despite a rather good (for their record) turnover ratio. It's true: when the Rams lose, they lose pretty badly. It's fascinating that the two AFC teams here have point differentials twice as good as the Lions. What a way to debunk the strength of the NFC!

The Verdict

First of all, we can already eliminate the Bungles from contention. Already they played two very tight games against the Giants and Cowboys. They have good playmakers. If they can compete with the class of the NFC, I'm pretty sure they'll come around quickly!

The Texans are a non factor because they have not one but TWO chances to play one of the other 0-fer teams, both at home. At home, the Texans manage to play very, very well, win-or-lose.

I'd hate to admit it, but St. Louis may be on its way to a win, possibly tomorrow (Week 6 at Redskins). It seems like their turnover ratio is too good to persist winless. In fact, the Rams had Buffalo on the ropes a few weeks ago but couldn't hang on. The 31-14 score that day was misleading.

That leaves... the good ol' Detroit Lions! Isn't it great to see Detroit up to its old tricks? Who could forget the 2-14 masterpiece season in 2001? Or perhaps the eight consecutive losing seasons? Detroit has it all: a horrendous turnover ratio, a deplorable point differential, and the second hardest schedule of the four 0-fer teams.

Detroit, our pride rests on you. It's not going to be easy, but YOU CAN DO IT!


(Don't forget to post your own predictions in the comments below)

Week 6: Attack of the Giant LOCKS of the Week!

Somewhere in Tokyo, a giant point spread attacks the city. Hapless denizens are powerless to stop them! Even firefighters can't put it out. Japan is doomed, unless... unless it can call on the powers of

Dave's (STOMP!)
LOCKS (grooowwwwl!)
of the Week (bonk!)

Dave's LOCKS of the Week
Week 6

Fooled ya! You thought I'd roll out some baseball themed "LOCKS" this week? Nope! Instead we gotta attack these giant point spreads! Here we have the "league of no gimmies," and yet we have not one but TWO giant point spreads this week. I love me a spread like Kirstie Alley at the buffet (hah! Speaking of giant Japanese attacking monsters, right?).

To the picks!!

First giant spread of the day is in our nation's capitol, Washington, D.C. Take a jet ride to the big football park over in Landover, MD. It's the LARGEST NFL stadium in the country, holding over 90,000 loyal fans. For the last 10 or so years we saw 90,000 rip-offs from the Redskins. This year it's different. HAIL TO THE REDSKINS INDEED! Time to go Hoggin'! After storming to a 4-1 record, America's "other" team is poised to devour some St Louis Rams!

St. Louis Rams go so well with a touch of 11 spices and BBQ sauce, but instead let's devour the point spread. +13.5?! Are they nuts? Did they not watch the Cincy/Dallas game last week? Never underestimate the opponent, especially a team looking for its first win. HAIL TO THE RRRRRAMS... that's right, the RAMS (+13.5) cover that huge spread and keep the game close.

Next, we move to the other meanacing point spread, looming over the land of 10,000 lakes. We're sailing on to Minneapolis! The Minnesota Vikings of Minneapolis (-13.0) are home to host the hapless Detroit Lions (of Detroit). Oof, talk about your mismatches... the Vikings new purple people eaters vs the sack magnet that is the Lions. This could get ugly before the first Joe Buck Promo on Fox. ouch! Look for the Vikes to Slam-a-lama (BONNNNG!) DING DONG the Lions and cover the (-13.0). This ain't just giving points... this is flat out charity!

Remember that Daft Punk song, "One More Time?" I'm a-gonna try one more time to pick a Denver Broncos game right. DAMN THOSE BRONCOS!! Damn Them!! I hate it!! When I pick them to cover, they blow it... when I pick the other team to cover, they blow it! ARRRGH. Enough with that... back to Invesco Field! Last pick of the day.

We just slayed the two big point spreads of the day. Now it's time to tear down premonitions. How could I not be inspired by the Jags' defense against Pittsburgh last week? They lost, but they played well. The Broncos have no defense, and yet, they're favored by (-3.5). Bag that sucka, and take the Jags to take a bite out of equine! Jags to cover the spread (+3.5) at Mile High/Invesco. Jags have NO RESPECT, I tell ya, NO RESPECT!!

and THAT's how it is on

Dave's (dink!)
LOCKS (donk!)
of the Week (doink!)

and this week, before Andrew's preview, I want to add a hearty GO TEXAS!! I'll say it now, and never root for the Longhorns again. Beat OU! Beat OU! Beat OU!! Enjoy the picks everyone.



Recap: Rams (+13.5) cover at Redskins; Vikings (-13.0) cover at home; Jaguars (+3.5) cover at Broncos