Dave's NFL WILD CARDS of the Week

I couldn't go the week without posting...

Dave's (blam!)
WILD CARDS (clank!)
of the Week (snap!)

Let's do this... Four Games, four mediocre to good teams... onward.

First, in Houston, I'm going Bungles to cover +3 and take the game outright. Upset City!

Next, in the Big Easy of New Orleans, I have the Saints -10.5 in a landslide. In fact, I'm also taking the OVER of 59.0 points. It's going to be a laugher, gents.

Next, in New Jersey, I'm going Falcons to take +3 at the Giants. Two unpredictable teams, but also a situation where the G-Men are expected to win. You know what that means... those mental minded Big Blue will lay an egg.

Lastly, we go to Denver, where the only thing high right now is the altitude for the game. The Broncos have hit on very hard times, and rumors circulated that Brady Quinn could take Tebow's place at quarterback if the game gets out of hand. In light of this, I'm still picking Denver +9.0 in a reasonably low scoring game.

There's your Wild Card picks. Enjoy the games, all.

...and featuring the Jaguars as "The Icebreaker"

The Jaguars are in a rare spot. It turns out that not only did they play the two remaining winless teams, but they will also play the one remaining undefeated team, all in a row.

Back in Week 9, the Jaguars traveled to Cincinnati to play the Bungles who, at the time, did not have a win. The Bungles pulled the upset and defeated the Jaguars 21-19

This week, the Jaguars traveled to Detroit to play the also winless Detroit Lions. This time, the Jags took care of business and clobbered the Lions 38-14.

Next week is Week 11, and the Jaguars will be at home to play the 9-0 Tennessee Titans.

It's not the first time one team played both a winless team and an undefeated team in the same season. Just last year, the Ravens, Eagles, Giants, Redskins, and Cowboys faced both the winless Dolphins and the undefeated Patriots, not to mention fellow division mates Buffalo and the Jets.

It *is* however, very rare to play both teams back to back, as the Jaguars will this month. It is even rarer to play two winless teams back to back, and it is supremely rare to play two winless teams and one undefeated team in a row.

The Jaguars' recent schedule is akin to hitting blackjack in three straight hands. If they somehow defeat the Titans, they'll be one of a select few to lose to an 0-fer team and beat an undefeated team all in the same month. Obviously, I am not counting teams that were perfect in September, since most teams can start 0-4 or 4-0.

Can the Jaguars upset the Titans to leave their blemish on perfection? We'll be sure to find out a week from now!

0-fer watch 2008: Last 0-fer Standing!

DOWN GOES CINCY!! DOWN GOES CINCY!!!!

0-fer watch rolled on Sunday, but the Bungles didn't want to play along. Hosting the Jaguars, the Bungles stormed ahead and didn't look back. Towards the end, Cincinnati had to hold off a Jaguars flurry, but the Bungles managed to win 21-19 despite themselves.

That leaves Detroit as the only winless team left in the NFL. Detroit tried its hardest to ruin 0-fer watch at Soldier Field, but thankfully their stench pulled through to lose 27-23. The Bears had a tough go of it initially, losing Starting QB Kyle Orton for the game. We'll hear more about Orton's leg injury later, but it led to a 20-10 lead for the Lions. Thankfully, we're not writing the obituary for Detroit's "perfect season."

With Cincy out, the Lions now must defend their "donut" in the standings with a home game against Jacksonville. That's right, it's the same Jacksonville Jaguars who lost to Cincinnati this week!!

Can the Jaguars blow back to back games against winless teams? Do stay with us to find out!

0-fer watch 2008: Stayin' Alive!

Today is one of those days we can be thankful to jokers like Dan Orlovsky who help to make these great 0-fer watches possible. Without lousy players like these, the NFL is a more mundane place.

Before jumping into Detroit's game, let's review the Bungles' attempt at 0-16...

In Cincinnati, the Bungles were overmatched from start to finish. The Steelers dominated, 38-10.

Now, let's go out to Houston, where the Lions met the previously winless Texans. It started off badly enough, where the Texans jumped to a 21-3 lead. Then, the Lions kept holding on the ball. Calvin Johnson contributed with a big reception to get the Lions into scoring range. The Lions managed to cut the lead to 7 with a field goal late in the 4th quarter, but in the end, it was Houston who kept the Lions on their path to oblivion!

Next week, Detroit will be at home to play the Redskins while Cincinnati will be at Houston to keep the dream alive! For the Texans, no rest for the weary! Houston plays both winless teams back to back, while in Week 6, they were winless themselves. Whew!

Stay tuned for more updates as we travel the Road... to 0-16!

The Perfect Season: Part Two

Last year, the country was turned on its ear by the New England Patriots and their undefeated regular season. It seemed impossible! Never before did a team go 16-0. These days even going 6-0 is difficult.

This year the world eagerly awaits the first 0-16 season in NFL history. Somebody can do it! Who is the best candidate?

So far, there are four teams in the NFL without a win: the 0-4 Texans, the 0-4 Rams, the 0-4 Lions, and the 0-5 Bungles.

Step One: Toughest Schedule

There is no empirical way to evaluate a team's remaining schedule. The best bet is to simply go by the number of teams scheduled who are currently .500 or better. Each team listed below is linked to its remaining 2008 Schedule, followed by a tally of games versus said teams.

Remaining games vs. teams .500 or better

Rams: 8
Lions: 6
Bungles: 5
Texans: 5

When it rains, it pours. It's so funny that both St. Louis and Detroit have already played some tough teams, and they are still due to play many more. Compounding their season, the Lions get a number of 2-3 teams who figure to be solid: the Jags, the Saints, and the Vikings (twice!).

Head to Head Matchups: Next week, the Lions and Texans will play each other, in Houston! That will eliminate a candidate instantly. In addition, the Texans will play the Bungles, also in Houston.

Step Two: Turnover Ratio

Who has the worst turnover ratio of the bunch? One can tell right away from the chart below the Lions lead the pack and it's quite gruesome!

Turnover Ratio

Lions: -6
Texans: -5
Bungles: -4
Rams: -3

Truly amazing. You'd think with all the points the Rams give up they'd lead the pack in negative turnovers. Not the case! It's possible the Rams have some very hard-core special teams issues. Meanwhile, the Lions are, predictably, Number One. If they're gonna turn it over, they might as well go all out, right?

Step Three: Point Differential

Point Differential is the difference between the number of points the team scores, and the number of points the team allows. The larger the number, the better the point differential. This is a remarkably accurate way to predict the legitimacy of a team's record in baseball, and it works similarly in the NFL. Here's where our fearsome foursome stand.

Point Differential

Rams: -104
Lions: -81
Texans: -47
Bungles: -44

Let's hear it for the Rams! Blowing away the competition in negative point differential, despite a rather good (for their record) turnover ratio. It's true: when the Rams lose, they lose pretty badly. It's fascinating that the two AFC teams here have point differentials twice as good as the Lions. What a way to debunk the strength of the NFC!

The Verdict

First of all, we can already eliminate the Bungles from contention. Already they played two very tight games against the Giants and Cowboys. They have good playmakers. If they can compete with the class of the NFC, I'm pretty sure they'll come around quickly!

The Texans are a non factor because they have not one but TWO chances to play one of the other 0-fer teams, both at home. At home, the Texans manage to play very, very well, win-or-lose.

I'd hate to admit it, but St. Louis may be on its way to a win, possibly tomorrow (Week 6 at Redskins). It seems like their turnover ratio is too good to persist winless. In fact, the Rams had Buffalo on the ropes a few weeks ago but couldn't hang on. The 31-14 score that day was misleading.

That leaves... the good ol' Detroit Lions! Isn't it great to see Detroit up to its old tricks? Who could forget the 2-14 masterpiece season in 2001? Or perhaps the eight consecutive losing seasons? Detroit has it all: a horrendous turnover ratio, a deplorable point differential, and the second hardest schedule of the four 0-fer teams.

Detroit, our pride rests on you. It's not going to be easy, but YOU CAN DO IT!


(Don't forget to post your own predictions in the comments below)

Week 5: The Great LOCKS Debate... of the week

Thursday, Capitol Hill

Speaker of the House: Hear! Hear! We are here to decide on Dave's LOCKS.

Congressman: Are we bailing out Dave's LOCKS of the Week?

Speaker: No!!! We're gonna whisper some good advice and get him back on his feet!

It's

Dave's (bang! bang!)
LOCKS (BONG!)
of the Week (clickclickclickclickclick...)

Dave's LOCKS of the Week
Week 5

Hey everybody! Hope your bank accounts are safe and sound, or present. Take whatever you can get... stocks are on shaky ground, just like Lane Kiffin was last week. WHERE'S MY RIMSHOT?!

Anyway, if the Stock Market was a betting website, it'd be this place. Whoof! 0-3 last week? My goodness!! Duck for cover now!! Let's turn that bear into a bull shall we?

To the picks!!!!!!!!!!!!

I need a little karma here, so let's go in reverse order:

LAST we go to the Valley of the Sun, Glendale, Arizona!! In the Valley of the Sun is a beautiful new stadium so eloquently named for a commuter college. Fantastic! It's the Arizona Cardinals hosting the Hot Buffalo Sauce Bills! Tasty!!

How good are the Bills? Actually, I don't know, but against the spread they're 3-1... not too bad for a team on the rise. Meanwhile the Cardinals are absolutely dreadful on the road and on a 2 game losing streak. Something's gotta give. I could go into stats, but instead I'll pose a question: If a Bill is caught dead in the desert and there were no vultures around, guess who gets to eat up? THE CARDINALS!!! I'm picking the Cardinals to cover their meager spread (-1.0) and fatten up on dead Buffalo in their beautiful home field.

NEXT we go back to Texas Stadium! Boy has that place been good to me. First, their local team, the Cowboys, and how about them Cowboys, all but guaranteed a Redskins cover (which I stupidly didn't list on LOTW). It also hosted the recent Cowboys/Eagles game. Remember that shootout? It's a shame this place is closing down. They're shutting down like Carson Palmer against the blitz! SMACK!

But you know what? Give the Bungles some credit. Two weeks ago they nearly shocked the Giants in the Meadowlands. The Bungles are playing good football! Am I calling for a BUNGLES UPSET OF THE WORLD? Of course not... but look at the line! (-17.0) for the Cowboys? That's just ridiculous. The oddsmakers are basically saying "Here! Take our money! We don't want it!" Are these guys stock brokers?

We all love Tony Romo, but the only Tony you should count on is TONY THE TIGER and he's on the Bengals... Bengals to cover (-17.0). Take the points. They're GRRRRRRRRRRREAT!

and FIRST we travel to Baltimore, the Home of Michael Phelps, and to a lesser degree, Katie Hoff, and to a lesser degree than that, the Orioles.

The Ravens are poised to dominate again on defense against another great defensive team. There's only one problem. IT'S THE TITANS!! Do they feel the upset? Quoth the Ravens, "never mo'". I'll tell you why. The Titans are undefeated against the spread and are phenomenal against the spread going back to '06. If they're favored, they cover. If they're dogs, they'll cover. and against the dregs of the NFL they played this month... oh they covered baby!

Besides, Tennessee has THE best turnover radio in the NFL, +6! The Ravens? A measley +1. So what time is it Ravens? Game time? Nope, it's time for you to LOSE! Ray Lewis, you're a nutjob. Are the Titans gonna cover (woof woof woof woof!)? They're favored by (-3.0) on the road (woof woof woof woof!)! Ravens don't have a chance. Give the pts and let's start TITANS FEVER!!

BANG BANG!!

Speaker: All in favor of Dave's Picks Say "Aye"

Congress: AYE!!!!!!!!!!!!

Speaker: Meeting adjourned!

BANG!! for

Dave's (grumble)
LOCKS (mumble)
of the Week (bump!)


Recap: Titans (-3.0) cover at Baltimore; Bengals (-17!!) cover at Dallas, Cardinals (-1.0) cover at home

Week 4: Dave's LOCKS of the... zzzzz

mumble grumble... oog...

"WAKE UP!!"

oh! Let's start another one of those

Dave's (yawwwn)
LOCKS (snooore)
of the Week (zzzzz...)

Dave's LOCKS of the Week
Week BORE (uh, 4)

Greetings gents, and greetings lady gents. I'm Dave Medina, fighting boredom and my eyelids, just struggling to make it through Week 4. This week is bound to be the worst week of the year so far, with probably one sure-fire big matchup (Was/Dal). Everything else... get ready for some insomnia busters fellas!! but... I must continue my duty and give you my LOCKS of the week...

To the picks!

First! We go out to Kan-sas City!! Does the weather EVER change in KC? You watch it on the tv and it's the same: no precipitation, no wind, not a cloud in the sky. So flippin' BORING.

Anyway, the Chiefs, taking torch from the Royals, are SOLIDLY in last place entering what I want to call...

THE REVENGE OF THE DAVE'S LOCKS OF THE WEEK GAME AGAINST THE BRONCOS LAST YEAR

In last year's DLOTWGATB, I resoundingly picked the Chiefs to cover and win at home in Arrowhead. Beeeeoooooooooooooooop. Big mistake. The Broncos dominated that game and the Chiefs could barely muster 11 pts. This time I'm getting MY REVENGE BABY!! Go with the Broncos (-9.0) to gallop to a big win (again) at Arrowhead. Forget it KC: As Herm would say
"We PLAY to LOSE.. THE GAME!"

Next, out to -bzzzzt- WKRP in Cincinnaaaaaaaaati --bzzzzzzt--

What happened to all those emails about Derek Anderson for the Hall of Fame? For goodness sake, is Cleveland the most overrated team alive? Meanwhile, I think the Bungles had a bad break. Palmer stumbled early but did well last week in Jersey. In fact, the Bungles even a semblance of a running game! Chris Perry has 180 yards so far; not too bad! Finally, the Bungles have yet to win their first home game, and they tend to sparkle at Paul Brown Stadium. You gotta pick the Bungles here to at least win and maybe win big.

If Cleveland wins this game I'm going to join the Clay Aiken fan club... IT AIN'T HAPPENING!!! Cincy (-3.5) covers the spread and then mauls those stupid plastic dog masks over the Brownies because it's BUNGLES TIME!!

Finally, the moment you've all be waiting for... BACK to CHICAGO!!!

I called it on Monday when the Bears let me down and blew their cover (no pun intended). IT'S TIME FOR SOME MORE PAYBACK. Yes, it's Revenge Week on Dave's LOCKS of the Week, and, I'm calling for a Good Philly Beat-down!!!!

Who needs a healthy Westbrook or McNabb? The Eagles still have their entire defense healthy and hopping. Knowing the Bears, we have a scenario ripe for interceptions. Yes folks, the Eagles are going to kick so much ass it'll make the Rams game seem like a nail-biter. The Eagles are swooping down and pecking apart the Bears for whatever the line is (currently "off"). That's right Bears, take that deep dish and SHOVE IT!

And... ho hum, that's it for

Dave's (pfffffff)
LOCKS (fluff)
of the Week (pat pat)

Don't forget to bring the Nyquil and enjoy the weekend's games, all!

RECAP: Broncos (-9.0) win and cover at KC; Bungles (-3.5) cover at home; Eagles (off) win outright at Chicago.