Dave's NFL WILD CARDS of the Week

I couldn't go the week without posting...

Dave's (blam!)
WILD CARDS (clank!)
of the Week (snap!)

Let's do this... Four Games, four mediocre to good teams... onward.

First, in Houston, I'm going Bungles to cover +3 and take the game outright. Upset City!

Next, in the Big Easy of New Orleans, I have the Saints -10.5 in a landslide. In fact, I'm also taking the OVER of 59.0 points. It's going to be a laugher, gents.

Next, in New Jersey, I'm going Falcons to take +3 at the Giants. Two unpredictable teams, but also a situation where the G-Men are expected to win. You know what that means... those mental minded Big Blue will lay an egg.

Lastly, we go to Denver, where the only thing high right now is the altitude for the game. The Broncos have hit on very hard times, and rumors circulated that Brady Quinn could take Tebow's place at quarterback if the game gets out of hand. In light of this, I'm still picking Denver +9.0 in a reasonably low scoring game.

There's your Wild Card picks. Enjoy the games, all.

The only man in America who picks the Saints to win the Super Bowl

Well, friends, here it is: Super Bowl Week.

On the "Dave in the City" podcast, I begin a series of podcasts about why I think the Saints are the team which will bring home the Lombardi Trophy.

There are long odds, to be sure. The Colts are a 5.5 point favorite, Peyton Manning is the reigning NFL MVP, and Indianapolis has Super Bowl Experience to boot! Even so, I am undeterred in my pick. Here's why:

1. Dwight Freeney means more to the Colts than we know, and he won't be 100%. We learned earlier today that Dwight Freeney has a torn ligament which may be more severe than we think. Freeney will play, but he'll be only half as effective on the pass rush.

2. The Colts appear to be the superior offense, but look at the teams they played against. They faced an up-and-down Baltimore Ravens squad and a mediocre (at best) New York Jets team led by Rookie QB Mark Sanchez. It's easy to look like a good offense when the other team can't score points.

3. Defensively I give the edge to the Saints. The Colts have the aforementioned Freeney, but with or without him, the D looks slow and overmatched. This would be the first time, I think, the Colts secondary has faced multiple competent receivers. Baltimore featured only Mason. New York featured only Cotchery. With New Orleans, you get Colston, Moore, and Henderson. I'm not about to say the Saints defense is a picnic, but I'd be more confident placing a bet on their pass coverage vs Indy's pass coverage.

4. The "Chip On Their Shoulder". The Saints are almost universally panned as a Super Bowl contender. Most experts believe they "can" win the game, but almost everyone I know has given the edge to the Colts. Just about everyone has roundly criticized New Orleans for their lackluster defensive performance in the NFC Championship game. The Saints couldn't put the game away. The Saints gave up the ball too many times. The Saints had an awful passing performance in the 3rd and 4th quarter. Yet, I honestly think the Vikings had more to do with this than the Saints inherent problems "closing games." Come now, this isn't baseball! If you're good, you're good!

I've seen the Saints go toe to toe with many of the league's best teams this season: The Patriots, the Jets, the Cowboys (in a loss), and so on. Who's to stop them from keeping it close with Indy? And WHO, dare I ask, is to stop this Saints team from taking it all? In the end, I think the better defense wins, and if you ask me, that defense lies in New Orleans. Sharper and Co. will make it happen.

Wow was THAT a beatdown?

Last Monday night was quite a show. I don't think anyone expected this outcome: Saints 38, Patriots 17. Many thought the Saints could win, but to school the Pats as they did was impressive indeed.

I have mixed feelings on this. I'm 100% happy for the Saints and their fans, they're off to a great start... hell... Start? The Saints are storming the barn this year! To think that this franchise used to cling to a SINGLE WIN during the entire season. The "ain'ts" ain't, no more!

And then there's the Patriots. The "mix" in my feelings is that while I want to be just so ecastic over a Patriot beat down, what I realized was the Patriots were badly overrated, and I was one of those who overrated them. I really thought the Patriots were a better team, but the numbers don't lie. Outside of a neutral field "road win" in London, the Pats have not won a single road game all year.

It's the kind of statistic you don't notice right away, because the Patriots only played four road games all year. Now you see them just get clobbered at New Orleans. Shame on me! I really thought the Patriots would compete more than this.

Truth be told, the Pats' problem is the same problem they've had for the last five years: their defense suffers. It is just not that good. Remember in the second quarter when Devery Henderson was wide open without a Patriot within 50 yards of him? That told the whole story.

Going back to the Saints, I've been pretty high on them the whole year, and this time around, I feel like I'm justified. The Saints are bound to lose a game, and honestly it's better for them if they do. I'm not saying "don't win games," but a loss is really good at refocusing a team for the long term.

Last night though, really was a showcase of conferences. The Saints, and the NFC, are clearly the superior group.

Speaking of losses, man, are you getting a kick out of MNF analyst Jon Gruden, who proclaimed "The Saints are going to run the table!"? This is the same guy who said "The Steelers won't lose another game the rest of the season [paraphrasing]", after which they proceeded to lose three in a row. Jon, you're killing me! Stop jinxing the NFL!

Packers and Saints: playoff bound?

Monday Night Football was intriguing last night, if for no other reason than it showed two teams with potential to make the playoffs. Can either the Packers or Saints get to the 'offs? Let's break it down one by one:

The Packers

The Packers are really banged up on defense, with Nick Barnett the latest of victims, but if they could somehow patch it up, the Pack might be back!

The Packers have the Fifth WORST rush defense in the NFL, BUT they allow the 3rd fewest passing yards per game. The Packers, going into last night, were +7 in turnovers. They're fairly mediocre in passing AND rushing, but my guess is, Rodgers could recover from his shoulder injury and turn things around. Even now, Rodgers has a decent 94.5 QB rating. That's not bad for a guy in his first full year as a starter.

Best of all, the Pack have two things working for them. First of all, the rest of their division is a joke. The Bears are a mere 6-5 and still have to play the Saints themselves. The Vikings are flat-out LUCKY to be above .500 with their lousy +7 point differential and -2 turnover ratio. They're falling out quick. Secondly, the Packers have a very easy schedule down the stretch. They'll get to play Carolina, Houston, and Jacksonville all in a row. I like the odds.


The Saints

The Saints looked good last night, and offensively, they are very very good. The Saints lead the NFL in Passing Yards per game, plus they're the 5th best scoring team in the NFL (ironically, four of the top five are in the NFC!).

Unfortunately, NFL teams are required to play DEFENSE. The Saints are rather awful on defense: ranked 18th against the run and 24th against the pass. Let's face it, the Saints aren't fooling anybody.

To make matters worse, the Saints are -5 in turnovers going into tonight's game, and they're only +39 in point differential. For a team that is among the NFL scoring leaders, having a measly +39 point differential is down-right pathetic. For their six wins, that's equivalent to a lousy 6.5 point margin of victory per game. Note: The Packers have a similar point differential.

Finally, the Saints face a decently tough schedule down the stretch. The Saints play at Tampa Bay, vs Atlanta, and at Chicago in consecutive weeks.

On paper, it looks like the Packers have a better shot to make the playoffs. If somehow Green Bay can return most of its injured defense, they could be, *might* be, a dark horse in the playoffs. Frankly, I doubt either team has what it takes to get that coveted playoff spot. We'll see.