The only man in America who picks the Saints to win the Super Bowl

Well, friends, here it is: Super Bowl Week.

On the "Dave in the City" podcast, I begin a series of podcasts about why I think the Saints are the team which will bring home the Lombardi Trophy.

There are long odds, to be sure. The Colts are a 5.5 point favorite, Peyton Manning is the reigning NFL MVP, and Indianapolis has Super Bowl Experience to boot! Even so, I am undeterred in my pick. Here's why:

1. Dwight Freeney means more to the Colts than we know, and he won't be 100%. We learned earlier today that Dwight Freeney has a torn ligament which may be more severe than we think. Freeney will play, but he'll be only half as effective on the pass rush.

2. The Colts appear to be the superior offense, but look at the teams they played against. They faced an up-and-down Baltimore Ravens squad and a mediocre (at best) New York Jets team led by Rookie QB Mark Sanchez. It's easy to look like a good offense when the other team can't score points.

3. Defensively I give the edge to the Saints. The Colts have the aforementioned Freeney, but with or without him, the D looks slow and overmatched. This would be the first time, I think, the Colts secondary has faced multiple competent receivers. Baltimore featured only Mason. New York featured only Cotchery. With New Orleans, you get Colston, Moore, and Henderson. I'm not about to say the Saints defense is a picnic, but I'd be more confident placing a bet on their pass coverage vs Indy's pass coverage.

4. The "Chip On Their Shoulder". The Saints are almost universally panned as a Super Bowl contender. Most experts believe they "can" win the game, but almost everyone I know has given the edge to the Colts. Just about everyone has roundly criticized New Orleans for their lackluster defensive performance in the NFC Championship game. The Saints couldn't put the game away. The Saints gave up the ball too many times. The Saints had an awful passing performance in the 3rd and 4th quarter. Yet, I honestly think the Vikings had more to do with this than the Saints inherent problems "closing games." Come now, this isn't baseball! If you're good, you're good!

I've seen the Saints go toe to toe with many of the league's best teams this season: The Patriots, the Jets, the Cowboys (in a loss), and so on. Who's to stop them from keeping it close with Indy? And WHO, dare I ask, is to stop this Saints team from taking it all? In the end, I think the better defense wins, and if you ask me, that defense lies in New Orleans. Sharper and Co. will make it happen.

Dave's LOCKS of the Week: Week 16

From my Christmas travels it's time for

Dave's (plop)
LOCKS (bonk)
of the Week (fwop)

Dave's LOCKS of the Week
Week 16

Again a Merry Christmas to you all! This week, an adbridged LOCKS of the Week to round out the second to last week of the season. You can bet everyone has the holidays on their mind, but let's hope they also have playoffs on their mind too. LOTS of teams still in it for the playoffs. TO THE PICKS!

First, let's do the easy one: Pittsburgh at Balitmore. I don't see how the Ravens lose this game, and to top it off, they get points! Quoth the Ravens "we get points? How did that happen?" The Oddsmakers are pretty smart on this one. They not only factor in the teams but the fans too. Imagine... they're having coffee and say "wow, all those goober Steeler fans must think they're going to run the table now... let's make them a FAVORITE!" No way should the Steelers be favored in this game, but Vegas has played the crowd and made them a 2.5 pt favorite. I want the Steelers to win so badly, but I'm going to use the brain instead and flock to the underdog. I'm going Ravens (+2.5)!

Next to Indianapolis, where the still undefeated Colts are playing the still in it Jets...

STILL the ONE, we're 14-0
STILL the ONE, we barely beat San Francisco
We're still having fun but we're STILL THE ONE.

C'mon, has there ever been a less convincing 14-0 team in NFL history? You gotta be kidding me with all these wins the Colts are pulling out of their pants... Even a magician couldn't pull off half these tricks. I'm not convinced by this team, and furthermore, with everything clinched, I imagine they may not have full intensity for this game. Jets are getting (+5.5). I'm taking the points and taking the Jets out in flyover country.

Finally, we go back in time a couple days to Christmas Day (the last two picks were for Sunday games). The Titans face the Chargers on Thursday Night Football! Yes, I said "Thursday Night Football". YES, they have one. No, I know most people don't get the NFL network... YES, I know Padres cable access baseball gets a bigger audience than NFL network.... I know, I know... ok ok.

Anyway, the Titans are rightfully favored by (-3). One might think that's a mistake, but after the 0-6 start, Tennessee has been doing a marvelous job battling back to about .500 . This team will have a ton to play for, and statistically speaking, the Chargers are due for a loss after 9 straight wins. Not to mention, Chris Johnson leads a Titans running attack that is near the top of the league (2nd overall in YPC). If the Titans are able to exert the runinng attack, it should allow for them to control the clock and minimize Philip Rivers' effectiveness. I'm going BIG, TITAN BIG and I'm going Tennessee (-3) on X-mas day.

I went 1-1-1 last week (yuck) and hope to turn it around this time on

Dave's (dink)
LOCKS (donk)
of the Week (beep beep)

Again, here are the picks: Bal (+2.5) at Pit; NYJ (+5.5) at Indy; TEN (-3) at home

I *knew* the Colts weren't that good!

In life and in football, perseverence is key. I can't believe how many people jumped on the Colts bandwagon. Then about three weeks ago, I raised the possibility that their schedule made them look better than they were.

Dave on December 19, 2008:

My feeling is, the Colts have been getting well on bad teams, including the Jaguars and Lions, and I am still not convinced.

Then last night, in the big AFC Wild Card game of the Week, Darren Sproles piled up 328 all purpose yards on the Colts "hot-streak" defense. How about that? Maybe the Colts aren't so hot when they play a team above .500. The Steelers game was a good performance for the Colts, but everybody else... meh... Let's break down the 9 games they won going into last night's game.

New England (11-5)
at Pittsburgh (12-4)

These two games were legitimately strong wins. The Patriots, although out of the playoffs, were one of the better teams in the NFL. The Steelers, of course, had the best defense in the NFL *and* a psychological edge that went back to the 60's.

then they beat

Houston
San Diego (although SD had them by the throat and let them out of it)
Cleveland
Cincy
Detroit
Jacksonville
Tennessee with none of their starters

Not exactly a "battle tested" schedule, is it? Imagine now the Dolphins going into today's game against the Ravens. I see almost the same pattern... build up a lofty record with wins against lots of lousy teams, only to be exposed in the playoffs. The only thing stopping Baltimore is their lack of knack for getting into the end zone... and perhaps a rookie QB.

In any event sometimes one has to call a spade a spade... you had two mediocre teams playing each other in San Diego last night, and it was a great game! But going forward, it's clear that San Diego was the better team this time around.

Now what? The Colts look old, overmatched, and outwitted. They stayed pat to make one more big run at the prize to go with their Super Bowl from 2006, but it might be time to break up the band now...

I still don't know if the Colts are this good...

Any time you see a game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, you question whether its the opposing team thats this GOOD or if it's the Jags that are this BAD.

Last night, more confusion. The Jags were ahead early, 14-0, but still managed to lose the game 31-26. BUT... the Colts needed some spectacular passing from Peyton Manning to get it done.

LOCKS Contributor Andrew Jacobsen notes that if the playoffs ended today, the Colts would play the Broncos in the first round. AGAIN?!?! How many times can we take Indy blowing out the Broncos??

However, the matchups have not been etched in stone. Andrew's football preview (below) indicates there is lots to be decided in Week 16. My feeling is, the Colts have been getting well on bad teams, including the Jaguars and Lions, and I am still not convinced. I remember that they went out on the road to beat the Steelers, but I see way more of these 3-7 point games against Houston, Detroit, and Cleveland. These are teams that ANY legitimate playoff contender should beat handily. Instead, the Colts barely skate by.

Luckily enough, Indy might be playing the other team with this character trait: Denver. Wouldn't you know?? I still don't know if the Colts are "11-5 good..."

Week 12: Dave's VENEGANCE of the Week!

You thought you had me! You thought you could pull that junk on me, all three of you picks! How dare you all!! NOT AGAIN!! I'm coming BACK BABY and with a venegance on

Dave's (BOOM!)
LOCKS (FOOM!!)
of the Week (ZOOM!!!)

Dave's LOCKS of the Week
Week 12

0-3 last week! It was so embarrassing I couldn't even show my face on the internet. I can't believe how all three picks betrayed me. One of them spoiled late, such as the Titans pick (you SUCK Jacksonville). Another one didn't bother to show up (way to go Eagles! You can't even win OR lose the game!)

So what am I doing? I'm going back and picking ALL THREE TEAMS AGAIN!!

To BALTIMORE we go! Quoth the Ravens, "again? Stop picking against us!"

Ok.. I won't. I'm goin' with the Ravens (-1.0). I'm so mad I can't take it any more. Ravens WIN BY 96!!! against PHILLY. SCREW YOU EAGLES!!!

Let's soar from the battle of the birds out to the Tale of the Titans in Nashville, Tennesee. This week the Titans are playing.... The Titans? Yep, back in the old days, before the Jets (+5.5) were "the Jets" the New York AFC Team was known as the "New York Titans". The "new" Titans have much better uniforms than the old Titans did. Oof... did you see the link? MUCH better!

So I'm a gonna go Old School and pick the New York "old Titans" aka J-E-T-S JETS JETS BRETTS!! Jets win by 508 points. FORGET YOU ALL TENNESSEE TITANS!! I HOPE YOU LOSE EVERY GAME THE REST OF THE SEASON!! GRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!

Now let's go from that Titanic rumble to our final pick of the week, back West where all the beautiful fishes play. Let's swing it back to San Diego, where we find the final team on the Hit list. The Indianapolis Blokes, I mean COLTS are a lock to cover against the Chargers (-3.0), right? No they're not!! Let's not get carried away everyone. The Chargers' defense is much better and you KNOW SD wants blood from last year's regular... wait they beat Indy in the playoffs. Ah what the hell it's DAVE WHO WANTS BLOOD! DIE COLTS DIE!!! ..at least this week. Chargers dominate and clobber the Colts: Bolts 1,354,768; Colts 10.

Grudge? What grudge? There you have it on

Dave's (bang!)
LOCKS (thump!)
of the Week (splash!)

Revenge never tasted so, so, sweet. Hope your weekend brings good fun and great harmony. Hope you enjoy the NFL this week!


Recap: Ravens (-1) cover at home; Jets (+5.5) cover at Titans; Chargers (-3.0) cover at home

...and THAT's why they call them LOCKS of the Week!

Boy am I pumped up!! PUMPED baby!!

The Tennessee Titans were deadlocked with the Indianapolis Colts, 14-14. And then, like Blitz Lightning (tm), the Titans stormed ahead with two touchdowns. A grand flurry which put the Titans above the pack as the best team in the AFC!

So it was... Dave's final LOCK of the Week covered in the last ten minutes of the game. Was I excited or what?! The Colts scored one last touchdown on a Peyton Manning QB sneak, but even that was not enough to dent the 4 point spread. Titans win! Titans cover! 31-21.

I covered again!!! So my LOCKS of the Week go 2-1 in Week 8, bringing our grand total TO...


10-13-1!!


It's the hottest ticket in town! Dave's LOCKS of the Week!!!

NFL Week 2 Brings the Excitement!

Hey everyone! Hope you guys had a good NFL Sunday.

It was a terrific day for football, filled with many close finishes, great plays, and shining moments. I was at Zodos, the only place to be for NFL football (if they knew how to turn on the HD). Anyway, here's my other thoughts on Week 2:

Aaron Rodgers: Like Musicals to My Ears!

Some folks weren't convinced Rodgers could take his good QB skills on the road. Instead, Rodgers impressed everybody out in the Motor City. Over 300 yards passing and 3 touchdown passes! I was impressed, and apparently, so were many fantasy owners.


The Greatest Week 2 Game Ever Played

There may be several candidates to earn the title "Greatest Week 2 Game". Unfortunately, Steelers/Browns is nowhere near the list. That game was kind of sloppy.

Instead, there was a battle of defensive wills over in Minneapolis between the Vikes and Colts.

There was also a terrific show in our nation's capital, perhaps a coming of age for young Jason Campbell.

Let's not forget the "Battle in Seattle" where you *can* get a second chance in life, or in overtime. SF's Joe Nedney misses the game winning field goal in regulation, only to nail it in OT, from the same distance!

Finally, the big shootout in Denver, where the Chargers and Broncos combined to score 77 points. Whoof!


Same Old Patriots

I still get the impression that the Jets are vastly overrated. It's tough to win games with only ten points in normal weather, and the Jets seemed more like a 4-12 team today. The Patriots do what they always do, win games, albeit much uglier and tougher than normal. The Pats have that 9-7 look without a doubt.

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Still to come on Brothers and Sisters Week: the big Monday Night game between the Eagles and Cowboys. It may not amount to much in the end, but this week it will be a lot of fun. I'm looking forawrd to the result, and let's hope we get a better game than we got in Cleveland!