Wednesday, January 8, 2014

Dave's NFL Divisional Round Picks (slap!) of the Week; Wild Card Picks go 3-0

In better news, Wild Card Round picks for the NFL went 3-0!

Chiefs +2.5 barely hit.
Saints +2.5 hit.
Chargers +7 hit.

For the playoffs I don't always have LOCKS of the week, but there is one LOCK I'm happy to reveal this week:


It is Seahawks -8 vs the Saints.  I think the Seahawks, despite their so-so offense, will dictate the run with Marshawn Lynch and beat the Saints pretty handily.  It won't be as resounding as their 34-7 win on Monday Night Football, but they should still win by 10 or more.  I *love* the Seahawks, and for weeks I prepared for a sextuple quality bet for their first home playoff game.   What incredible luck that they get to play the Saints!  Seahawks -8.   Seattle 31, New Orleans 17.

Now for the other picks, which are not LOCKS, but I shall reveal them.

Next we go to New England, and meet the Colts at the Patriots.  The Patriots, with their much improved defense, should be able to put away Indy, although you can never truly be sure with an Andrew Luck team.  However, Luck's arm is prone to turnovers and I think the Patriots are sure to take advantage.   I actually think the Patriots can win going away.  We'll go Patriots -7.   New England 24, Indianapolis 13.

On to Carolina where the 49ers meet the Panthers.

What else can you say?  Both teams are really tough defensively, and they match up with each other very well.  It was a tough fought affair in their regular season matchup in SF, and Carolina emerged with a victory.  I feel like the playoff matchup will also be oh-so-close, but this time out, the… HOME team will win.  Which means, Carolina takes it twice in a row.   Carolina is +2, so we elect to take the points.   It could also point to a 49ers 1 point win… and judging from their last meeting, it's just as possible, but either way, I like the home team getting 2 points.  Panthers +2 at home.  Carolina 13, San Francisco 7.

Finally, to Mile High in Denver…

I am still APPALLED that the Broncos would be giving a whopping 9.5 against a Chargers team that plays them tough.  What that says is not that the NFL experts don't have confidence in San Diego, but that the fans who wager on games don't have much respect for San Diego at *all.*   A touchdown-plus underdog two weeks in a row, despite San Diego's quality performance against Denver at Mile High where they won the game.   In addition, it's keen to watch for Peyton Manning's playoff performance: it takes a marked downturn come January.   For both of the above reasons, I like San Diego to make it very very interesting, but this time out I think the Broncos win it.  San Diego +9.5 with Denver getting the win.   Denver 31, San Diego 28.

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