Thursday, December 12, 2013

Dave's LOCKS of the Week: December 12th

An abbreviated

Dave's (jingle)
LOCKS (ho ho ho)
of the Week (ding!)

Unfortunately, there are some weeks where I just don't feel that confident about many games.   As a result, we can only select two games for LOCKS this weeks.  One of them is tonight.  In exchange for this lack of material, I'd also like to play a game we call "CONTRARIAN SUNDAY" where we take NFL teams getting odds for their respective Money Lines.   In other words, we'll select underdog teams to win straight up.  First, the official LOCKS of the week.

We'll start tonight in Denver.  I love the Broncos giving 10.5.  That seems like a lot against a divisional opponent, but the Broncos are at home, Peyton Manning is still throwing the ball extremely will despite the colder temperatures, and while the Chargers came off an huge blowout victory against the Giants, I think they'd be equally as vulnerable at Mile High.  It's really tough for anyone to win in Denver, and this year, no one has beaten the Broncos at home.  Adding to that, the Broncos have covered every home game except for one:  the outrageous 27 point spread they gave to the Jaguars.   We'll play the percentages and lay the 10.5.  Broncos -10.5 at home.

Lastly, our LOCKS go to the Meadowlands where the upcoming home of Super Bowl XLVIII features a team that won't be anywhere *near* the Super Bowl against a team that is "most likely to make the Super Bowl."  That would be the Giants at home against the Seahawks.   I don't have much to say except "don't overthink it."   I grant you the Seahawks usually don't score as much on the road, but Seahawks giving a touchdown, it seems like an easy play.   Seahawks -7 at NYG.

And that concludes our LOCKS.  To recap, we have the Broncos -10.5 at home and Seahawks -7 at NYG.


Let's get into this edition of CONTRARIAN SUNDAY.   I figure we could do this like the game of "Craps" in Las Vegas and go all out.  I have also played the Chargers money line at +420 (hohohohohhhohohohhhhhhh yeahhh mannn far ouuuuut).  That's actually a hedge on the aforementioned Broncos pick but we'll have some fun with it.

Here are our other Money Line underdog selections for this very hard to predict CONTRARIAN SUNDAY:

Bucs +220
Vikings +200
Redskins +265
Giants +260
Texans +210
Jets +480
Raiders +200
Titans +125
Rams +225
Steelers +120
Ravens +210

To break even on Contrarian Sunday, assuming a 100 dollar bet on each of these teams, you would need to see a return of at least 1200.   Bear in mind that the odds listed will return to you in *addition* to your 100 dollars per, so if Bucs +220 hits, for instance, you'd get back 320 bones.

More than usual, there are a lot of teams with +200 and greater odds.  It'd be possible to hit on less than half of these selections to break even.  We'll determine how it goes and report the results next week.

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