Thursday, December 19, 2013

Dave's LOCKS of the Week: December 19th

Back at it for a Christmas Edition of

Dave's (ring!)
LOCKS (ding!)
of the Week (donnng)

We were trying to figure out our LOCKS all week long.   As we enter Christmastime, it didn't seem like Vegas wanted to give an inch.  What Scrooges are they?  Fortunately it loosened up and some point spreads moved towards the end of the week.  Now we can fire with three sure NFL picks.

Here we go!  We start with Saints/Panthers.  I've got Saints +3.5.  We got a HUGE break for gamblers seeing the line go up an extra half point.   HUGE BREAK.  I was going to go w/ New Orleans anyway, but now you have a good chance to see them lose by a field goal and still pay out the ones taking points.  Saints +3.5 at Carolina.

Miami -3 at Buffalo.  Maybe the Bills do have a good defense, but my goodness, do those dopes suck at closing out a game or what?   Granted, they tend to play well at home, but I should mention that Stevie Johnson will not play this week due to a death in the family.  I worry a bit about the Dolphins in a late season situation because I just get the feeling that when you expect them to win a game they *don't*, but hopefully they get it done defensively.  The Dolphins are, if I remember it correctly, 5 for their last 5 against the spread.  However, all five of those games were as an underdog.  This time they're a favorite.   Generally speaking they don't deliver as much as a favorite.  Their last game as a favorite was the game at TB but TO BE FAIR, they only lost by two points and that was at the peak of all the drama with Richie Incognito.  I like EJ Manuel and the Bills, I like what Mario Williams and co. bring defensively, but I simply like the way the Dolphins are going right now.   It's tremendous value for a Vegas favorite, and we're staying with consistency, Tannehill, and the Dolphins.   Dolphins -3 at Buffalo.

Lastly I have Seahawks -10.5 vs Arizona.  I want to use all the cliches about it being a divisional game, about Arizona being a hungry team, and how the Seahawks have all but locked up home field so they won't put their best effort, but guys guys guys… don't overthink this one.  The Cardinals just aren't as good on the road except in games against extremely lousy teams.  Furthermore, the Seahawks won by 12 *in* Arizona.  To have the same matchup at home implies a win by at least that many points.  Remember, Vegas *wants* you to bet on the Cardinals… it's an Ackbar Special!  Take the Hawks -10.5 at home.

Merry Christmas to you all and to all a good week!  To recap, we selected Saints +3.5 at CAR, Dolphins -3 at BUF, and Seahawks -10.5 at home.

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