Wednesday, November 12, 2014

Dave's LOCKS of the Week: November 12th

We have the picks early this week on Dave's (BLAM!) LOCKS of the Week.  Just two games this time, the NFL was impossible to pick from confidently.  I may pursue the Chiefs -1 vs Seattle as a non-lock of the week.  Watch for them on Sunday.

Otherwise, to the two picks, both from College:

Alabama -8 vs Mississippi State:  This one's simple.  'Bama is simply dominant at home, and Mississippi State's looked limited at times offensively.  Alabama simply has more talent and I feel like they hit their stride.  It is very VERY tough to trust any team with Lane Kiffin's involvement, but what's the worst that happens with this pick?  It's a great game?  Alabama loses?   I am more than happy to choose them, quite confidently to cover 8 points.  Had it been 18 points or even 80 points I still would have considered 'Bama as a LOCK of the Week.   They've gone 3-0 against the spread at home in-conference.  No real indications of this going differently unless we have simply underestimated Mississippi State's defense.   I'm not really convinced.   The game against Arkansas was too close for comfort ('Bama also had a tough time with Arkansas).   Kentucky was giving them a tough time too.  How would Dak Prescott and a relatively new-to-the-scene team react to such a big atmosphere in Alabama?   They did it before at LSU, but this is now crunch time and NOW the stakes are pretty high!   The better experienced team is the one I like, ROLL TIDE.

Florida State -3 at Miami:  Miami is VERY overrated here.  Their defense is just plain bad, and they can be had.  It may be close in the beginning, but Florida State should handle this team pretty well.  

Oh very well, I have no real argument... this is purely a win-win/spite pick.  I pick it hoping the 'Noles either cover or lose outright.   Very good chance of either happening.  Confidence well spent!

There you are!   Bama -8 and FSU -3.  The LOCKS of the Week.   Here's to a good outcome.

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