Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Dave's LOCKS of the Week: October 23rd

Start it up on

Dave's (bong)
LOCKS (chop!)
of the Week (plop)

I've had enough of the Bucs.   I really have.   Week after week of them playing terrible football.  Week after week of them failing to cover point spreads aside from the early season.   The line for their games would get larger and larger and somehow they were dunderheaded enough to still lose by larger margins than the forecast.   Even a quarterback change wasn't enough to make them a better football team or even a more competitive one.  Let's face it, the Bucs quit on their coach Greg Schiano.  All the way around, the Bucs are bad football.

Last week against the Falcons, they had their closest shot at covering a point spread in quite some time... they lost by 8, and in most circles they were a 7.5 point underdog.  Even with all of that, it's not enough.   At this point, there isn't a single redeeming factor with the Buccaneers.  Meanwhile, the Carolina Panthers quietly got on a roll with a pretty good defense, and some pretty dominant wins against the dregs of the league.  If there's one thing the Panthers do well, it's blow out really bad football teams, and that's a hard thing to do in the 'L.   Cam Newton, the returning Jonathan Stewart, DeAngelo Williams, and the rest will all be in effect and we believe they'll cover -6 at Tampa.   Panthers -6 at TB.

Perhaps there's the adage that "the Bucs have to win sometime!"  They get to wait a week for their first win, because this Sunday, no way.


One team I like in a big rebound way is San Jose State and the much-ballyhooed David Fales.  A few weeks ago, I bombed a pick with SJSU at home against Utah State, but at that time, SJSU was without WR Jabbari Carr and Freshman RB Thomas Tucker.  Tucker is still out, but making good recovery, but Carr is now expected to start.  Against Wyoming, they have an opponent that just lost to Colorado State by 30 points.  Would you believe SJSU beat CSU 34-27 in the state of Colorado?    Combined, it gives a good case for San Jose State to cover a mere a touchdown point spread.  SJSU -7 at home.

Next, I have Wake Forest, if you can believe this, covering +23.5 at Miami against the hurricanes.   Why does it seem like the ACC always finds its way to the clowncar in the second halves of seasons?  Miami had a big scare against North Carolina, and presumably they'd be ready to put a big game together against Wake, but if you look at Wake's schedule up to now, they haven't really been that bad. Miami's schedule against ACC opponents so far hasn't been perfect.   Wake lost 52-7 against Clemson, but otherwise, their largest loss was by 14 points.   It's a tough nut to crack, but it would be impossible to think Miami would roll the rest of the regular season without a slip up here and there.   Despite my general support of Miami football (be that as it may with the sanctions, that's another topic), I think Wake can at least keep it closer than 24.  Wake Forest +23.5 at Miami.

I should know better than to select Big Ten teams, but I have Northwestern +4.  I have a hard time thinking Northwestern would lose 4 games in a row, and furthermore, I think people could be overreacting to Iowa.  They haven't exactly been winning all these games, but they kept a bunch of them close, including last week's affair at Ohio State.   Something seems off about that line... I guess it's fair, but unless they flat out quit on the season, they can at least cover 4 points on the road.  Northwestern +4 at Iowa.

Continuing the thread of "I should know better," I'm somehow convinced that the Giants can cover +6 at Philadelphia.  I have no clue why this is other than the fact that the Eagles are due to start Michael Vick back at quarterback.   Both teams are pretty dismal at this point... it might play out that the game comes down to a field goal.  Neither one has a good defense.   Last time out, the Eagles blew away the Giants at the Meadowlands.  This time around, I think the Giants get revenge and might possibly get back to back wins.  Giants +6 at Philly.

Finally, we look toward Monday Night.   It's the relatively healthy Seahawks against the Rams.  The Rams have hit rock bottom.  Even on Monday Night and even with a less than stellar Seahawks offense, I have a good feeling the Hawks will cover the whopping 11 points in prime time.   Seahawks -11 at St. Louis.

There's LOCKS for a late October week of football.  Here's the recap: Panthers -6 at TB; SJSU -7 at home; Wake Forest +23.5 at Miami; Northwestern +4 at Iowa; Giants +6 at Philly; Seahawks -11 at STL.

It is a WHOLE LOT of road picks this week.  Makes me nervous.  But when you see the line and you flinch, you gotta act!  We'll see how it plays out.

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