Thursday, October 31, 2013

Dave's LOCKS of the Week: October 31st

and it is time... to ghoul, to howl, on

Dave's (aaaaaaaaahhhh!)
LOCKS (waaaagghghghgghghghghghhhh!)
of the Week (aaiiiiieeeeeee!)

Halloween Night, a scary affair, but on this night of wildness, we present some pretty sensible selections.

First, in Corvallis, I really like Oregon State -5 against USC.  This isn't to say SC is a terrible team or anything, but I will say the Trojans really struggled to move the ball, don't play well on the road, and can be beat pretty easily on the outside routes.  Oregon State excels at passing the ball and all offense.  The matchup doesn't match the spread to me and I have the Beavers by at least a touchdown.  Oregon State -5 at home.

Up next, we look at the other LA College Team, UCLA.  UCLA took a major beating in two road games against Stanford and Oregon.  However, they're playing at team in Colorado that has yet to beat a Pac 12 opponent so far, they've lost each matchup by at least 20 points.  The Bruins are struggling to get Brett Hundley protection at the offensive line, but I doubt Colorado will present the kind of pressure they saw from Stanford or Oregon.  Ultimately I think this becomes another dominant Bruins home victory and I'll lay the 27.  UCLA -27 at home.

Now to the state of Florida, where I have a sneaky feeling that Miami will be more than a cakewalk for the Florida State Seminoles.  I've felt this way all week.   I know how great Florida State is playing and I remember how much they thrashed Clemson on the road, but the Seminoles would be just the team due for a letdown game and Miami, as badly as they've looked lately, still possesses a great weapon in QB Stephen Morris and a pretty fast paced vertical passing game that can hit in the right spots.  Let's not forget, for many years FSU/Miami was the showcase rivalry game in College Football.  So many great memories and close finishes were had in the salad years of the 90's and early 00's.  Why NOT Miami to keep it interesting?  22 isn't that big a point spread, but I think I'll give Miami that shot.   Miami (FL) +22 at Florida State.

Next, we go head to head with Tyler's Investments and go the *other way* on one of his picks.  He really liked UTEP cover +46 against A&M, but I'm taking the Aggies instead.   If A&M does one thing well with Johnny Manziel, it's beat the snot out of non-conference, mid grade football teams.  I don't even think UTEP is a "middle of the pack team."  They're bad, folks.    I'll tell you what, they gave up 45 points to RICE.    To play *at* A&M in College Station means they're going to lose.  They might lose by quite a lot.   Texas A&M -46 at home.

Now to the pros...

There's one game that's jumping out at me, and no doubt some others felt the same way, and it's Buffalo at home against the struggling Kansas City.  KC's Chiefs have really had trouble with their offense lately and they nearly lost games to both Houston and Cleveland in back to back weeks at HOME.   All signs point to them finally losing a game, so we're going to take the much motivated Bills +3 to at minimum cover and at maximum unseat the final undefeated in the NFL.  The Bills play very well at home, they've beaten some teams like Carolina and Baltimore.  They came THIS CLOSE to beating New England and Cincinnati at Ralph Wilson stadium.  The Running Back position is still hurting, but Stevie Johnson is having quite a nice season at WR.  The Bills circle the wagons this week and beat the Chiefs.  Bills +3 at home.

That'll do it for a Halloween Edition of LOCKS of the Week!  Here's the recap: Ore. State -5 at home, UCLA -27 at home, Miami (FL) +22 at Florida State, Texas A&M -46 at home, and Bills +3 at home.

Trick or Treat!  and Spook Responsibly.

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