Tuesday, November 19, 2013

Dave's LOCKS of the Week: November 20th

Here we go!  Rebound week on

Dave's (blam)
LOCKS (snap)
of the Week (swat)

Three picks this week -- only ONE in college due to the increasingly frustrating incompetence I've had of late with NCAA Games.   I considered Texas A&M +4 at LSU, but that fire was too hot to cook in, so instead we'll go with a local team.

I *love* UCLA +1.5 at home against Arizona State for several reasons.  Number one, a home dog is a great play in most situations, especially if the oddsmakers say the matchup is close.  This matchup definitely is -- it's the top two teams in the Pac 12's South division.  Number two, UCLA is rolling since their brutal two-step at Stanford and Oregon, and their defense looks great.  Brett Hundley is back on a roll and looking pretty sharp throwing the ball.  Number three and most importantly, I *can't lose!!!!!!*  With a point spread of just a point and a half, there are only two logical outcomes from this game -- UCLA wins and I win the pick OR UCLA loses.  Quite frankly, I am pretty darn happy with either outcome.  We love the Bruins +1.5 at home.

Next, to the NFL, along the same lines, I am selecting Dallas +2.5 at the Giants in the Meadowlands.  It follows the same logic.  With that small a point spread, and the Cowboys coming off a bye, it either means a) the Cowboys most likely win outright or b) the Giants beat the Cowboys.  I've had just about enough of the Cowboys -- they've been such a circus quite frankly that they don't deserve to win a game the rest of the season.  I will quite happily trade one LOCK of the Week for a Cowboys loss that ends their season.  Once again, this pick presents a Dave "can't lose!" special.   Besides all of the above, the Cowboys are simply a better roster than the Giants with or without Sean Lee.   The QB matchup favors Tony Romo, and I think the Giants have had one lucky break too many facing depleted rosters and backup quarterbacks.  Something has to give, logic has to set in, and we believe, barring some untold tomfoolery, the Cowboys will finally get it done and win.  Bear in mind, Dallas already beat the Giants to open the year back in AT&T Stadium.  Between winning the pick or the Cowboys losing, I can't really go wrong.  Cowboys +2.5 at NYG.

Finally, if you thought I had win-win's in the previous two picks, you ain't seen nothing yet!  I am BIG on the Patriots at home to rebound greatly from their loss at Carolina.   It helps that the Pats play the weakest defense they've played in some time and a familiar foe: Peyton Manning.  It would be incomprehensible to forsee the Patriots losing two games in a row even as beat up as they've looked lately.   Not to mention -- Ron Gronkowski looks great off the Injured Reserve.  Even if the Pats can't come through and cover as a 3 point home dog... the Patriots lose!  I think we're all winners here.   Patriots +3 at home.

On a can't lose weekend, here's our LOCKS recap:  UCLA +1.5 at home, Cowboys +2.5 at NYG, Patriots +3 at home.

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