Tuesday, November 19, 2013

LOCKS of the Week Season Total: 23-22-2

Man, there was no way around it.   We had a BAD week on LOCKS of the week, the worst week of the year.  The most frustrating thing about it is that most of the damage was preventable.  I have been positively hideous with College Games this month, to the point where I have one win in College picks in the last *two weeks.*   When I picked games last week, my original plan was to stay with Ball State and only do the two NFL LOCKS.  But no!  Instead, I felt a little cocky and elected to take two top 5 teams to cover their respective point spreads:  Ohio State and Alabama.  Neither one did.   One of the biggest problems with my move is that both teams were on the road and it was late in the season.  It was not a high leverage move.

That, more than anything, is what put me in a huge hole for LOCKS of the Week.   I was having the best season of the year, and because of it, a 1-4 week turns a pretty serious season record into a .500 record.  The season total is now 23-22-2

This is the most disappointed I've been with LOCKS of the Week all year.  I just can't do it anymore -- the college picks have been so bad that I considered taking a week off.  I almost considered taking a week off of picks altogether but we will not give up.  AND, we're going to go back to the well with College and I *promise* you, we will have a winning week in College picks before the season is over. The selections get less obvious with each week, knowing how important the games are, but there are those diamonds in the rough.  Now, let's break down last week's picks.

The Hits:

Carolina -1.5

I felt pretty good about this one all week, and having the line at only 1.5 for a home team on Monday Night was, if nothing else, a pretty good decision.  Even if it didn't hit, I would feel pretty good about going that way.  It was close!  It took a tight game and a questionable officiating call to seal the deal, but the Panthers are hot.   It's tempting to take them *again* but you always want to be careful about overdoing it with the same team.

The Misses:

Ball State +9.5
Ohio State -33
Alabama -25
Saints -3.5

The Saints had numerous chances to win more convincingly, and as we always say with gambling: the two things you can't account for are turnovers and injuries.   You can't bet on either one taking place even if a particular team is known for giveaways, like the Giants.  As it was, the Saints pick lost by half a point… seeing the half point was ominous from the get-go.  I wanted that at 3… I considered buying it down to 3 or using the point spread from another source, but as this was one of my "personal wagers", it was not ethically feasible to opt for a more favorable point spread on a source I didn't use.


As to the three college misses, Ball State was still a great play and I don't regret using them at all -- it just didn't work out.  The other two however were just a desperation move I could have avoided.  It was simply a bad idea.  Now with that said, next week, Ohio State is at home to play Indiana, and that might actually be worth taking.  We'll see.  'Bama -- they were due.  They'd gone nearly two months covering the spread and it figured they were bound to lose one, but I thought maybe there was a chance they'd run it up as they did with Kentucky on the road.  No dice.

One other disconcerting fact is that LOCKS have not had a 3-0 (or 4-0) week to date.  Usually LOCKS of the Week get one of those turkey weeks, but we will accept the consistency (this week aside) over the rare 3-0 week.   We'll try to turn it around this time with some new picks here on LOCKS of the Week.

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