Thursday, October 30, 2014

Dave's LOCKS of the Week: October 30th

Here we go, time for Dave's LOCKS (aiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiieee!) of the Week.

Just four games this time, but I feel pretty confident about them.

We'll start with the lone college pick.  Despite my hesitance to do College Games, I nonetheless will select Ole Miss -2 against Auburn.  Auburn is really looking overrated lately and I think they got pretty embarrassed by a similarly good defense at Starkville against Mississippi State.  Ole Miss is going to win this one going away.  Mississippi -2 vs Auburn.

Next we have the Panthers +3.5 at home against the Saints.  For me it's two things:  one, home dogs in prime time getting points are a good play, and Carolina is a good choice for one because while they lost against Seattle, Cam Newton's played markedly better.  The second thing is that the Saints still are very bad on the road.  I know they'll win a game there eventually but with the extra half point, I feel pretty confident about the Panthers at least covering the spread.  Panthers +3.5 vs Saints.

I'm also taking Patriots +3.5 at home against the Broncos.  Same reason! In fact, it surprises me a good amount that the Brady's Pats are getting more than a field goal against the Manning's Broncos.  Even recent history suggests that the Patriots have the upper hand over Manning teams at Gillette Stadium.  In a showcase game such as this, as every Manning/Brady matchup is, a home team getting points is a tremendous opportunity.  It doesn't happen often, and the fact that the Pats are underdogs suggests that either the Patriots are much worse than they looked in recent weeks or that a TON of people are putting money down on the Broncos.  I tend to think it's the latter because we've seen some pretty big point spreads for Denver over the last three weeks.  The betting public is big on Denver, and I feel like I can at least get good statistical odds with Brady and Belechick at home.  Bear in mind, the Patriots have yet to lose a home game.  I actually liked them outright, but officially we have Patriots +3.5 vs Broncos.

Lastly, I'll play heel and take the Ravens +1.5 at the Steelers.   In all honesty, the Steelers have been more fun to watch lately but their defense, especially in the fourth quarter, is pretty terrible.   Their pressure on Andrew Luck seemed like more of a fluke last week, but Ryan Shazier did make his return a week ago.  Nonetheless, the Ravens are a better all around team, an improving defensive team, and they're coming off a loss.   PIT comes off a win against the Colts.  Logically you'd expect the superior roster to win out, even on the road, but we'll see how it goes.   Ravens +1.5 at Steelers.

The line has since changed, since I made the pick early in the week.  Currently the point spread is Ravens -1.   I like it more with Ravens getting the point and a half, so I'm glad to jump on it.

So there they are, LOCKS for Week 9 of the NFL.   Mostly NFL, one College Game, and with hunches I think will hit.  On to a good football weekend!

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