Wednesday, September 25, 2013

Dave's LOCKS of the Week: September 25th

It's another chance to take off on

Dave's (clank)
LOCKS (zing)
of the Week (whoosh!)

A huge showdown week awaits in College Football.  Big cornerstone games await in the NFL.   This week's theme is "Don't Overthink it Week".

Yes you can factor in injuries and rivalries here and there, but the basics are going to be the key.  We start in St. Louis.  The first NFL game of the Week, Thursday Night, San Francisco 49ers, St. Louis Rams.   Could the Rams be out for the kill?  Oh of course, but are they that good?  Of course not!   The 49ers were bruised and beaten by Indy a week ago, but let's face it, there is just so much more talent, injured or no, on the 49ers that even a good Rams pass rush can't match it.  The 49ers also have good linebackers and a secondary that doesn't take too many chances.  The 49ers will be more desperate than any other team in the NFL this week.  I like SF and I like them big.  San Francisco -3 at St. Louis.

Up next, we go to San Jose where the Utah State Aggies have another chance at a win in California.  They failed last week, although they kept it close at SC.  Chuckie Keeton was not super on that day, but here against San Jose State's miserable defense, he'll do better, but we also have a pretty good offensive player like David Fales quarterbacking the team from San Jose.   SJSU is getting 10, and I think the game's closer than that.  SJSU +10 at home.

Next up, Oregon off a bye week at home to play GOOD OLE CAL.  Cal really hit the skids... losing by double digits to two ranked teams at *home.*  In fairness to the Bears that be Golden: the two teams were Ohio State and Northwestern.  This week, Cal gets their first road game, but they will have a miserable time keeping pace with Oregon, as almost any team does.  This early in the season, I sense another bloodbath at Autzen.   Oregon -36.5 at home.

Lastly, it's time to put my money where my mouth is.  This is the second biggest game on Georgia's regular season schedule at home against LSU.  This won't be easy pickings at *all.* LSU presents a fantastic defense, great athleticism, and a physical O-line and D-line.   Georgia presents a growing defense, some NFL caliber offensive players like Aaron Murray and Todd Gurley, and perhaps a mission -- destination SEC Title Game.  It'll happen in part if they beat the Tigers, and I like them here at home.  Giving only 3, I feel like Georgia is a very good shot to win, so we'll play chalk and pick Bulldogs -3 at home.

Overall, the week presented many challenging point spreads, but within the fray we said "keep it simple" and decided DON'T OVERTHINK IT.  Here's the recap:  49ers -3 at STL; SJSU +10 at home; Oregon -36.5 at home; and Georgia -3 at home.

Now to see them play the games, and hopefully keep the success train moving!

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