Friday, October 5, 2012

Dave's LOCKS of the Week: NFL Week 5, NCAA Week 6

Here we go... into the autumn with more of

Dave's (blam!)
LOCKS (crash)
of the Week (pop!)

There are a few NFL picks this week I'm keen on but first, a bonus BASEBALL pick.

You can't really pick MLB against the spread, but I'll go with Texas and the money line to win today against the Orioles.  I *love* the Rangers, and I think they're going to be fired up after that debacle in Oakland.  They'll be out to prove everyone wrong and leading the way, Yu Darvish, who, while overpaid, is the best pitcher on the team.  The Orioles depend too much on Home Runs and their counter is Joe Saunders.  No thanks.  The O's are going to get hammered today at Arlington.  The odds are -196 for Texas according to   I also like the over/under of 9 total runs for the game. I'll take the over.

Next, to the NFL and to Candlestick Park where SF hosts the Buffalo Bills.  I'm going to make this pick even though (wimper) the Bills are not as good as we thought they were.   It's a desperation plea to turn the tide and reverse jinx Buffalo into a big win.  One could say we're "circling the wagons."   Anyway, the Bills are getting +9 at SF and I'll go with it all the way.   SF is due to have a game where they get hammered by turnovers, and this could be that game.  Buffalo +9

I likewise am HUGE on New Orleans -3 against the San Diego Chargers.  There are a few things in play: not only pride for the Saints who are seeking their first win, but also Drew Brees' consecutive games record with a touchdown pass.  The Chargers have looked good so far, but somehow, I'm not convinced by their defense.  Expect a lot of points to be scored in this one, but a solid 4, maybe 7 point win for the Saints.  NO -3 at home.

I apologize in advance to all the loyal Connecticut fans out there, but after having bagged on Rutgers all season, I have to give them due respect.  I'm taking Rutgers -7 at home against the Huskies.  UConn is also 0 for their last 5 against ranked opponents, including a beatdown by Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl a few years back.  Hard not to take Rutgers in this spot.  I've come around on the Scarlet Knights.  Let's just hope this doesn't result in my getting a Scarlet Letter.  Rutters -7 at home.

Lastly, we're going to Corvallis and picking the underdog Washington State Cougars with a whopping 15 1/2 point spread.  The 15 1/2 points jumped out at me because the Oregon State Beavers have a miserable time moving the ball and can't convert on 3rd downs.   Check out their schedule -- they haven't won any of their three games by more than 7 points.  There were some tough games in there, but even in the big win at UCLA, they should have had a much bigger lead most of the way.  The team is not a high scoring team, and I think Vegas erred with such a big margin for the game.  The Cougars have their own demons, but I think they'd put up at least 14 even on the road.  WSU +15 1/2

To summarize:  Bills +9, Saints -3, Rutgers -7, and WSU + 15 1/2 .  PLUS our bonus MLB picks of Texas money line *and* the over of 9 total runs.  Enjoy the games everyone!

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