Thursday, October 25, 2012

Dave's LOCKS of the Week: NFL Week 8, NCAA Week 9

2-2 last week, 3-1 the week before.  Let's do it!

Dave's (bang!)
LOCKS (bong)
of the Week (dink)

I couldn't wait until Friday to do this.   I'm going right after is this time and mark my words, I see this happening:  Arizona beats USC this weekend.  So clearly, my choice is Wildcats +6.5.   The Cats are pesky at home, and they have played SC tough for at least a decade.   The game is at Tuscon, AZ.   SC is going to be rusty after playing so much garbage time against Colorado the week before.  I also think the Trojans' defense can be had.  Syracuse nearly had them.  Utah had them early on.  Stanford was a different case of the Cardinal shutting the Trojan offense down completely.  Nonetheless, it seems like the SC secondary is vulnerable to me.  I'll keep hearing excuses about injuries until the cows come home.  Let's face it, it borderline sucks.  It's getting better (hard to get much worse than a year ago), but if the Cats stretch the field, which they did against Stanford, they'll have a shot.  I'll give 'em more than a shot, I'll give them the outright victory.

In fact, I'm taking this a step further:  if SC wins this game *and* the Oregon game next week, I'm changing my Facebook profile photo and avatar to a photo of Jon Heyman for a week.   Heard it here first.   Arizona +6.5

Next we go to Norman, OK for a game I *love*.   Notre Dame at Oklahoma.   We went over this one on the podcast last night with Mike in North NJ, and our consensus is that the Irish have the speed and physicality to keep the Sooners in check for most of the game.  With Notre Dame getting a whopping +11, I feel like the Irish will keep it closer than that.  I don't think they win, but I will go Notre Dame +11 on the road.

One more college pick -- I learned my lesson picking more than one NFL game at a time, and we go... to Manhattan KS.   K-State has an interesting one against fellow Big 12 Team Texas Tech.   Here's the thing with Texas Tech:  they just came off a tiring 56-53 multiple overtime win at TCU and their defense is a joke.   Kansas State, meanwhile, shut down another big offense in West Virginia on the road.  Colin Klein has been regarded as a terrific quarterback.   It adds up to another huge win for Kansas State.   I'll take the Wildcats -7.  This one has serious potential for a push, but no matter.

Finally we enter the roulette wheel known as the NFL.   Let me first have a soapbox moment:  NFL betting to me seems like a sucker bet.  Most of the point spreads are laughable.  You barely see any lines that exceed 7 points.   True to form, most games play out that way even if you were to think, for instance, that the Rams would be easily blown out despite getting 4, and yet, the Packers weren't able to put away St. Louis until the very end.  With that in mind we seek out our one diamond in the rough.

We might get that diamond on Monday Night:  I've always noticed that the Cardinals and 49ers play each other closely.   It's a divisional game, no less, and the Cardinals were off to a good start.  As it stands, the Cards are a .500 team, but getting +6.5 at home is little extreme.   I might have seen +4 or +3, but 6!   Considering that the 49ers can't easily score touchdowns lately, I'm going to happily take Arizona and the points.   SF figures to win, but it will be within a touchdown, IMHO.  Arizona +6.5

To review: Arizona (Wildcats) +6.5, Notre Dame +11, Kansas State (Wildcats) -7, Arizona (Cardinals) +6.5.  Enjoy all the games!

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