Thursday, October 18, 2012

Dave's LOCKS of the Week: NFL Week 7, NCAA Week 8

A very hard to predict edition coming up on this edition of

Dave's (slam!)
LOCKS (zing!)
of the Week (conk)

The Top 25 schedule is so impossible to predict in College Football.  The only picks I will make this week is my selection of Colorado +40.5 at USC.   SC has earned its reputation as "unable to win against the spread."  So far this season, they're 1-5 against the spread, with the lone "win" against Cal at home.   Colorado is easily the worst team in the Pac 12, and frankly, among the worst teams in the FBS.  Nonetheless, I get the feeling that if USC goes on a roll with Barkley, Lee, Woods, and company, they'll likely rest starters as they did against Hawaii and Utah in those respective games.  That should slow down the pace enough to allow the Buffaloes to cover.  It's not a TRUE lock, but the odds are on our side.  Colorado +40.5 at USC.

Next!  Another study on the Big Ten as we try to fathom the enigma that is Ohio State.  Ohio State at home does a marvelous job nearly doubling up Nebraska on National TV.  However, the week after, they struggle to put away lowly Indiana and scrap by with the final score 52-49.   This week, the Buckeyes host Purdue in a game one would think they'd take care of easily.   I can't trust the Buckeyes.  Yet, I'm going to go with Ohio State convincingly, -18.5.   What helps is that Ohio State has *already* had their letdown game, and that they seem to be heating up offensively.  Quarterback Braxton Miller has been impressive at times and last week was no exception with 360 yards of total offense.   Somehow I have a sneaky feeling this won't hit but I'll ride the wave and go with convention:  Ohio State -18.5.

Lastly, we go to two NFL picks.  First, here's a pick I had to make "at the buzzer," I am big and I mean BIG on Seattle to cover +8.5 at San Francisco.  The hell with what bookmaker says at 4:25pm , I got 8.5 this morning and I'll stick to it.    Somehow, I think a mobile quarterback could pose some challenges for even an active defense like that of San Francisco.   In addition, the offense is taking some more hits for the Niners as WR Mario Manningham was ruled inactive for the game.   The 49ers will play yet another tough physical defense at home.  It's a big game and a divisional showdown no less, so I think the 'Hawks will make it *very* interesting.  Seattle +8.5.

Finally, we'll go to St. Louis and go Packers -5.  The Pack is getting the break of a lifetime giving ONLY 5 on the road against a team that could not score to save its life.  If the Rams' games against teams like Arizona were any indication, they have major issues at quarterback and Danny Amendola is out for about three more weeks due to shoulder trouble.  Amendola was far and away their leading receiver and without him, the Rams figure to struggle offensively.   I'm also not very impressed with Steven Jackson.  The man is always hurt and I can't imagine that he'll hurt Green Bay despite the Packers' very weak run defense (110 yards allowed a game!).   Green Bay -5 at St. Louis.

To review, LOCKS this week are Seattle +8.5, Colorado +40.5, Ohio State -18.5, and Green Bay -5.  Enjoy the week of football, everyone!

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