Friday, October 12, 2012

Dave's LOCKS of the Week: NFL Wk. 6, NCAA Wk. 7

Here we go for a Columbus Weekend

Dave's (blam!)
LOCKS (splash)
of the Week (conk)

We'll start with College.  There are LOCKS, and then there are absolute layups.   USC at Washington, who are undefeated at home so far (this year they're at CenturyLink Field), will be an easy cover for the Huskies.  Local radio has tried to downplay the Sarkesian angle but this is one coach that has the Trojans figured out.   Let's face it:  USC has not played that differently with their scheme from where they were in the Pete Carroll era.  And the more things change, the more they stay the same.  Once again, the Trojans cannot cover the point spread in any game this year except maybe one.  Once again they had a let-down game against an inferior opponent in a big prime time game on the road (Stanford).  Once again, the Trojans are going to have a good season but bumble what could have been a great one.  Washington should give them a competitive game and should be an easy 12.5 point cover.   Bear in mind, Washington BEAT Stanford at CenturyLink. Washington +12.5 at home.

Next, I love, and I mean LOVE LSU for the outright victory, but officially we'll select the Tigers to cover at Baton Rouge.  The line is a paltry -3.5 and they'll face a very good South Carolina Gamecocks team.  I'm a big fan of the Gamecocks, but while that's true, LSU will have something to prove after losing at Florida the week before.  It would be *unfathomable* to see the Tigers lose two games in a row.  It has been a while since that happened.  In fact, LSU has not lost back to back games since the 2008 season, and that was at the very end of the year against Ole Miss and Arkansas.  Both teams have tremendous defensive talent and the game will be tight.  That extra half point could ruin it, but nonetheless, I'll go Tigers.  LSU -3.5 at home.

Onward to South Bend, where the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are facing the Stanford Cardinal.  I liked what I saw from Golson last week, and their defense continues to be terrific, but I also like Stanford's physical O-line and D-line.  Nunes, their quarterback, is not a good QB.  Even so, I think Stanford can run the ball well and hope to crack into the tough Irish defense.   I don't think Stanford will win per se, but I love the Cardinal to cover +7 on the road.   This is easily the most physical team Notre Dame has played yet, and I am interseted to know whether they're up to the challenge.   Stanford +7.

Lastly to the NFL we go.  A huge game awaits both the Giants and the 49ers at Candlestick.   I can't for the life of me determine why the Niners got a whopping 6.5 points at home against the Giants.  6 1/2 points!!!  I know the Giants are touch and go and a bit overrated, but you can't give the Giants that many points on the road.  I HAVE TO, as a civic duty, take the points and go Giants +6.5.  The G-Men know the formula:  maintain possessions, put the pressure on Alex Smith to throw the ball down field, and try to play smart football.  If the Giants can limit their turnovers and force the Niners to stretch the field, which they're miserable at, I think NYG wins it.  CERTAINLY I think they can keep it close.  Giants +6.5

Enjoy all the games!  Here are the LOCKS again:  Washington +12.5, LSU -3.5, Stanford +7, Giants +6.5.

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