Thursday, September 20, 2012

Dave's LOCKS of the Week: NFL Wk. 3/NCAA Wk. 4

Here we go with

Dave's (snap)
LOCKS (clamp)
of the Week (whrrrrrrr...)


This is a tough week to select theoretical wagers.   None of these games jump out, but here are a few diamonds in the rough.

First, I'm taking Michigan +6 at Notre Dame.  I *love* the Wolverines to take this game, so picking them with the points is a natural choice.  The only problem is that the Wolves are going to need a big defensive effort against Golson and the Fighting Irish.  We'll see what happens, but as you know those Mich/ND games are almost always close.

Up next, I like UAB to cover +37 at Ohio State.   For Ohio State to cover a 37 point spread, that would require the Buckeyes to score 37 points.  That's a good one!!  They scored 52 in their first game against Miami (OH), but since then they haven't scored above 35.   Even if the "bucks" scored more than 37, you could imagine UAB would score at least ten.   Never trust a big ten team to score 40+ points unless they play an especially bad team, but I'm not willing to put UAB in that category... yet.

Missouri has shown itself worthy of the SEC so far with a gutty effort, albeit still a decisive loss, at Columbia against Georgia.  This week, no going back now as the Tigers play the South Carolina Gamecocks on the road.   Interestingly, the point spread is SCAR -10.  Just ten points!   I think that's a fair number, but I still like SCAR to take over and win by maybe 20, so I will go SCAR -10 for an easy cover.

I know Arkansas hit hard times, but are they a paltry -7 at home against Rutgers?   Razorbacks -7.   It's too easy.

One NFL game for the weekend:  Dallas is sure to pick up -8 in their home opener against Tampa Bay.  I'm not sure what happened to the Cowboys in Seattle.  No matter -- I'm still sold on not only their linebackers, but also their new secondary.  That should be good enough, so long as Tony Romo doesn't give up excessive takeaways.  Cowboys -8.

Michigan +6, UAB +37, SCAR -10, Arkansas -7, Dallas -8.   3-1 last week.   Hoping for the same this week!

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