Thursday, September 27, 2012

Dave's LOCKS of the Week: NFL Wk. 4 NCAA Wk. 5

And now the Carmageddon edition of

Dave's (blam!)
LOCKS (screech!)
of the Week (womp)

I'm having a tough time finding any action with college this week.  However, I have a few NFL point spreads that jump out at me.

I'm probably asking for it, but I think I will be the only guy in America who will take Buffalo +4 at home against the Patriots.  How can anyone with a clear head pick THAT quarterback (Ryan Fitzpatrick) against New England?  Even at home in Buffalo?   Here's the thing -- The Patriots have lost two early season close games, by close margins.  That suggests to me that the Patriots don't fare well in close games.   It *also* seems to me that if a team can send the blitz and put pressure on Tom Brady the offense becomes very beatable.  As it is, it doesn't seem like the Pats have answers on the edges and are trying too many plays to their tight ends.   Aaron Hernandez is out and that alone seems to hamper the offense quite a bit.   Hernandez and Gronkowski TOGETHER were tough to defend, but with just one of them, it's an easier game plan.   I don't think the Pats WRs will be a big enough challenge for an admittedly mediocre Bills secondary.  Put it all together, and I think the Bills will take +4 -- maybe a win, maybe a loss, but I like the cover.

Next, I'm putting my money where my mouth is and I'm taking Philadelphia -1.5 at home against the Giants.  Nobody should ever count on the Giants to perform when they're expected to, and I see the same situation happening here.   While the Eagles are miserable with turnovers, the Giants have come close to turning the ball over many times this year.  It could be a sloppy game, and perhaps a high scoring affair.  At any particular offensive position aside from quarterback, the Eagles are superior.  RB: LeSean McCoy.  TE: Close, but I'll take Brent Celek.   WR: DeSean Jackson (sorry salsa fans).   Let's not forget that the Giants have proven to be mediocre with their safeties and corners so far.  We'll see if they're up to defend the Eagles numerous receiver options.  In either case, Philly at home against the Giants is the LOCK of all LOCKS.  Philly -1.5.

Now back to college, where it looks  like UCLA gets a break with a -20.5 point spread against Colorado.  If they can't put away Colorado like they did with Rice, UCLA might have some problems.  The Buffaloes are easily the worst team in the Pac 12, and the Bruins have both Huntley and Franklin available to run slipshod all over the field.   It almost seems too easy.  I may have smack talked the Bruins a week ago, but they surely are good enough to destroy Colorado on the road.   Any team in the Pac 12 would be.  Bruins -20.5

Only three LOCKS this week:  Buffalo +4, Philadelphia -1.5, UCLA -20.5 .

No comments: